Has anyone done projections of the probability of a Kessler Syndrome based upon the HUGE, planned satellite networks? Based upon their proclivity to crash hypergolic propellant rocket stages on their own people, would one of the bad guys be China?

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"I looked in the mirror and told my wife that all I saw was an ugly old man and needed a compliment to raise my spirits. She said, 'Your vision is perfect.'"
"Before I met my wife, I was incomplete. Now, I'm finished." - Norm MacDonald

It looks like this may be one of those many topics which no-one in a position to fund studies for such things wants an answer to because "it hurts business." I had to find this dated article only on the Wayback Machine:

The Kessler Syndrome
As Discussed by Donald J. Kessler
March 8, 2009

https://web.archive.org/web/2010052...les/KesSym.html

__________________
"I looked in the mirror and told my wife that all I saw was an ugly old man and needed a compliment to raise my spirits. She said, 'Your vision is perfect.'"
"Before I met my wife, I was incomplete. Now, I'm finished." - Norm MacDonald

Now, please allow me to apologize to YOU for an overreaction on my part.

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"I looked in the mirror and told my wife that all I saw was an ugly old man and needed a compliment to raise my spirits. She said, 'Your vision is perfect.'"
"Before I met my wife, I was incomplete. Now, I'm finished." - Norm MacDonald

No need to apologize. And to answer your question about mega constellations, yes, very detailed models and simulations have been performed by multiple groups. The impact upon the environment depends on how well the mega constellations adhere to the standard practices and perform appropriate collision avoidance. Right now we have insufficient data to assess the degree of compliance.

Sorry to be hand wavy, but the big problems with all the models are the human factors - future launch rates, size of the constellations, operator decisions, and so forth. These things can be very variable and cloud future projections.

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