Wow. Thanks for lots of great feedback. Unfortunately, the steel rod was clean, as was the lug. Neither did I note much wind at the time of launch (I'm very wary of launching in wind.)

Some post-mort pics. The surviving first stage, seemingly undeterred.

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Just completed: Estes Cherokee-E, Estes Multi-Roc.

Current project: Painting the roll pattern on my new Ventris build, gifted me by the estimable Dr. Houchin.