Auction pricing on OOP Estes kits

[Ltvscout]

Gerry Fortin put together a great list tracking auction prices on OOP Estes kits. You can view it here:

http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/home.htm

[scigs30]

Hey, I think I bought most of those kits..... :chuckle:

[arlblaster]

I have a few on that list...... I also see a handfull that arent very accurate. Thats just the ones that I was involved in.

#1281 Alien Invader High Price $75 Low Price $48

I saw one in mint condition go for $110 ,that was for charity or something,dont remember. I also got REAL lucky and was refreshing my ebay search page one night and caught someone putting one up for $35 buy it now. I jumped all over it.....

Ken

[gerryfortin]

Ken,

This is Gerry Fortin. Thanks for checking the Estes kit database. Please be aware that I do not include any Buy It Now information as those listings are not true auctions and are an inadequate measure of kit value through open bidding. As for the stated higher price that is not listed in the database, can you please specific the date of the auction so I can add to the database? Many thanks.

To all other readers....it is a pleasure to be part of this community. This is my second BAR event and hopefully I will stay with model rocketry for years to come.

A short personal introduction is probably in order. My primary interest for 20+ years has been rare American Liberty Seated dimes minted from 1837-1891. After years of researching the series, I published a web-book at www.seateddimevarieties.com. From the numismatic experience, I decided to try a new collecting pursuit and Estes kits seem to be an obvious choice. Since there was a lack of public pricing guide, I though it might be interesting to assemble one and attempt to determine the relative scarcity of individual kits. After 1 year of tablulating eBay prices on a best effort basis, I decide to offer the information to the public via my website. It is possible that I missed some kit listings across one year's time. I also will dismiss any kits that are opened or obviously damaged from the database.

[sandman]

Thanks, Gerry.

My insurance agent has been bugging me to get her a price estimate on the boxes of old kits I have.

I don't have an excuse now. :o

[Mikus]

Very cool list Gerry, thanks for posting it. Having bought a number of OOP kits on ebay over the last couple of years, I know just what a nightmare tracking these must have been. :eek:

But the OC in me will now make me spend time looking to see how my buying went. ;)

Right off the bat I noticed this one:

Congratulations on winning this item! The next step is to pay the seller.
Mini Shuttle !RARE! New Mint Condition Estes OOP #1391
Sale price: $18.51 + Shipping: $6.50 = Total: 25.01
04/28/08


Woohoo, feeling good about that buy.... :D

If I run across anymore I'll let you know.

Thanks again,
Mikus

[gerryfortin]

Glad that members are finding the listing useful. Indeed, it is a challenge to keep up with each day's new listings, placing them on the watch list and then updating the database on weekends. Since I work in China most of the time, there is amble time to "keep up" with the eBay activities; the alternative is to be in bars and ruin my liver. I'll take model rockets any day as the monies potentially spent in bars can buy more kits!

Will update the database as members point out a high or low price that I've missed.

[Shamous]

Thanks a bunch for doing this Gerry. You the man!! :cool:

[Der Red Max]

First thing I noticed were that there seems to be no distinction between the Citation Boxed kits and the non-Citation bagged kits.

I know many folks like to call the bagged 0652 Patriot - "Citation" to differentiate form the (military) Patriot version, but in truth all of the Citation models differ from the later bagged version.
and - Not to mention the boxed Citation kits average well over $150-$200 more than their non-Citation bagged version.

For example:
Model • Citation Boxed • Non-Citation Bagged
Bomarc • Glider Recovery • Parachute recovery
Quasar • Chrome finish/Clipped fins • White finish/unclipped fins
SS Vega • Pods w/NC & Chrome wrap • Truncated Pods/Red Wrap
Patriot • 2 Pc. NC/Longer Stars&Stripes Decal • Blow Molded NC/Truncated S&S Decal
Der Red Max • 2 Piece NC • Blow Molded 1 Pc. NC

[gerryfortin]

I plan to finish the catalog kit list this weekend so the website link will be consistent with Estes kits through 2008. Again, I am not tracking the "starter sets' or the RTFs. Really doubt that I will be able to capture the new eBay kit prices from the past week. That will have to wait until next weekend for a two week update.

Thanks to everyone for their comments and information; will add those into the database this weekend.

Gerry

[gerryfortin]

Hi Der Red Max

Can I assume that the Citation kits are numbered as "KC-x" while the non Citation versions are numbered as 065x? If that is the case, then it is simple to change the database accordingly and also to track boxed vs. bagged kits.

[Ltvscout]

Hi Der Red Max

Can I assume that the Citation kits are numbered as "KC-x" while the non Citation versions are numbered as 065x? If that is the case, then it is simple to change the database accordingly and also to track boxed vs. bagged kits.
Correct.

[gerryfortin]

A quick update is in order. The database is now accessible via three links due to the size of the database file and ongoing upload problems with my ISP. Actually, breaking the database into three tables also helps with download speed and my ability to add further segmentation of the earlier kits by no hangtag/with hangtag.

A kit name cross reference table is under construction as a fair number of eBay listings do not use the catalog number.

Finally, I threw in the top 10 active and expensive kit tables on the home page for a bit of decoration..... One of these days, I need to get home and add a few rocket pics to really decorate....

Feb28 - Update.......

Database is current. Enjoy

[gerryfortin]

Hi everyone....

The Estes kit database was updated as of March 25 and the Estes kit name to catalog cross reference list is also finished. I would like to hear feedback about the Top 10 active and highest priced kit tables. Do you find them useful before clicking on the individal database pages?

Since announcing the database on this forum, the BAR website link has been visited about 500 times; an encouraging statistic.

Finally, I was able to buy a Blue Bird Zero kit for reasonable monies today.......this is kit number 354 in the growing collection.

[Ltvscout]

Finally, I was able to buy a Blue Bird Zero kit for reasonable monies today.......this is kit number 354 in the growing collection.
Heh, was that you that paid $70+ for one?

[West Shore Rockets]

Anybody know the value of an original Estes Honest John? The regular size, not the Maxi. I don't have the year. But it had the green facecard.

Reason for my curiosity is that at NARCON, we had one as a door prize, and one of the young kids in the club got it. I watched her father's eye bug out when she got it.

Thanks.


Bob

[Carl@Semroc]

Anybody know the value of an original Estes Honest John? The regular size, not the Maxi. I don't have the year. But it had the green facecard.

Reason for my curiosity is that at NARCON, we had one as a door prize, and one of the young kids in the club got it. I watched her father's eye bug out when she got it.

Thanks.


BobThat came from Mark Mayfield's collection as a donation to NARCON, along with an Arcon-Hi and Streak. They were in my possession for about two hours if there is any drool on them. :D

[gerryfortin]

Anybody know the value of an original Estes Honest John? The regular size, not the Maxi. I don't have the year. But it had the green facecard.

Reason for my curiosity is that at NARCON, we had one as a door prize, and one of the young kids in the club got it. I watched her father's eye bug out when she got it.

Thanks.


Bob

The Honest John with green facecard sells for average price of $117 on eBay. There have been two sold in the past year at $170 and $64. Quite a large spread but I don't remember if the $64 kit was mint.

[gerryfortin]

Heh, was that you that paid $70+ for one?

Scott....yes that was me. I was thrilled to secure the kit for under $100.

[LeeR]

A Mars Snooper for $347?

Wow ... I have the Limited Edition boxed, and while not as old, makes me wonder if I should just keep it. I was ready to build it, but maybe I should just buy the BMS clone, and save this one.

[gerryfortin]

A Mars Snooper for $347?

Wow ... I have the Limited Edition boxed, and while not as old, makes me wonder if I should just keep it. I was ready to build it, but maybe I should just buy the BMS clone, and save this one.

There is a significant difference in pricing for the Collectors Series Mars Snooper (#2093) vs. earlier K-20 kits. The Collector Series only brings about $50 so probably is not as "collectable" as an original and mint K-20 kit. Don't know the typical price of a BMS clone kit + shipping but have to believe that building a Collector Series Snooper is a reasonable decision.

[A Fish Named Wallyum]

There is a significant difference in pricing for the Collectors Series Mars Snooper (#2093) vs. earlier K-20 kits. The Collector Series only brings about $50 so probably is not as "collectable" as an original and mint K-20 kit. Don't know the typical price of a BMS clone kit + shipping but have to believe that building a Collector Series Snooper is a reasonable decision.

A BMS kit would be $40.95, no ups, no extras. (Unless Bill has changed his $6 flat fee for shipping.)

[gerryfortin]

The April 5 update is online. I've noticed that the earlier K kits are bringing strong money of late. Take a look at the Top 10 Expensive Kits table and it becomes evident that demand is there from collectors for the early K kits.

I was able to buy a number of "difficult" if not rare 1980s kits this weekend on eBay for reasonable monies. How many of you have a Magician is your collection? This is a known rare kit that I snagged for about $40. Other purchases included the WASP, Tartar and Nova Scout Ship (also rare). Also picked up a Black Bryant III and a Sky Hi; both for $28 each and was most surprised that no one was paying attention.

On the other hand, there are some high prices being paid for Estes kits that I would consider to be available. Some examples include; Deep Space Transport $50, SuperNova $41 and Titan IIIE $265. This Titan IIIE is already in the high end of the Saturn V pricing space and smashed the old high price of $162 by a wide margin.

Has anyone checked out the thread about Estes K kit collection registry? I really would like company on this concept....I added a Ranger and a Spaceman recently.

[mycrofte]

Well, I look at it. But, being laid off, the only rockets I'm interested in are the $20 range. lol...

[Ltvscout]

On the other hand, there are some high prices being paid for Estes kits that I would consider to be available. Some examples include; Deep Space Transport $50, SuperNova $41 and Titan IIIE $265. This Titan IIIE is already in the high end of the Saturn V pricing space and smashed the old high price of $162 by a wide margin.
When I see real high prices like that, I often wonder if a shill or two isn't in place. Unfortunately, with the hidden bidder names eBay now employs that's almost impossible to figure out anymore.

I for one do not like the hidden bidder name scheme eBay now uses.

[scigs30]

Am I missing something here?
http://cgi.ebay.com/Centuri-Model-Rocket-box-1960s-Vintage_W0QQitemZ330319604836QQihZ014QQcategoryZ30QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

[tbzep]

Am I missing something here?
http://cgi.ebay.com/Centuri-Model-Rocket-box-1960s-Vintage_W0QQitemZ330319604836QQihZ014QQcategoryZ30QQssPageNameZWDVWQQrdZ1QQcmdZViewItem

Yes. That was the pristine starter set with sealed Astro-1, sealed Servo Launch pad, original Ray-O-Vac photo flash D cells, paperwork, and motors. Notice that the auction says to contact off-line if there are any questions. I'm sure he got a bunch of people emailing him to repost it without any mention of contents so they could bid on it.

[scigs30]

I see,,,,,,,,,What a bummer if a empty box showed up for 255.00 :chuckle:

[gerryfortin]

When I see real high prices like that, I often wonder if a shill or two isn't in place. Unfortunately, with the hidden bidder names eBay now employs that's almost impossible to figure out anymore.

I for one do not like the hidden bidder name scheme eBay now uses.

Scott...fully agree with you. I also dislike the new eBay approach for coding bidder names.

These occasional out of line prices could be the result of shill bidding but I do look at the bids on occasion and it appears that someone places a high "buy it" type bid followed by another person with even a larger "buy it" bid. This happened to me once during auction for Satellite Interceptor and I paid much to much.

[gerryfortin]

Many Estes kits were auctioned this weekend. I wanted two must have kits for the collection. The Nike-X and the Saros, both in gem condition. Bought the Nike-X for about $110 but the Saros went for "moon money" at $295! Two bidders went head to head on this kit and left me in the dust...... Maybe next time.

Even opened and partially assembled kits are now bringing strong monies. Partially assembled Saturn 1B brought $82 and a common Mercury Redstone at $55.

[LeeR]

Saros for $295! Maybe I should sell off mine that I built ~ 1976.

[gerryfortin]

The April 18th update is online.

I've expanded the earlier K kit listings to include no hangtag and with hangtag entries as no hangtag kits are slowly appearing on eBay; but one must have patience.

I did not realize that the ARV Condor was issued in a plastic bag along with the common boxed packaging.

So how many of you are using the Estes database for judging fair market pricing?

[gerryfortin]

You are invited to take a look at the lastest addition to the Estes kit database. As I study the early K kits, it become obvious that numerous facecard and hangtag changes were made through mid 70s. The current database is inadequate to properly track the numerous kit variations without a visual guide. So I decided to use the same Liberty Seated Dime analysis approach and to build a separate reference page for each kit variation. The first Estes design to be analyzed is the K-2 Mark since I had images from recent eBay sales and a kit that is currently listed.

When building the individual kit pages, I am borrowing images from eBay sellers until I return home from this China expat assignment and can shoot my own kits. When I do not own a kit, then there is no choice but to borrow an eBay image. My goal is educational in nature and hope that eBay sellers will not mind. In addtion, I though it might be fun to add the Estes catalog artwork for the kits. To accomplish, I'm capturing the .jpg files from Ninfinger catalogs and cropping/editing as necessary.

Here is the link that will get you to the early Estes kit database. Then scroll down to the K-2 kits and click on each link to view the individual kit pages. Again, this effort is designed to be educational and I would invite feedback and help to populate pages as they are created.

http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/data1.htm

[mojo1986]

Gerry, you are really getting this database right! All of the upgrades you are making to it will result in a very useful reference in years to come for new and veteran collectors alike. I hope you can find the time to continue this work because it's going to get very time consuming with all of the detail you're now putting in! Congratulations go out to you for your vision of bringing the rigorous approach used in coin collecting over to the world of model rocketry!

Joe

[msm0202]

You are invited to take a look at the lastest addition to the Estes kit database. As I study the early K kits, it become obvious that numerous facecard and hangtag changes were made through mid 70s. The current database is inadequate to properly track the numerous kit variations without a visual guide. So I decided to use the same Liberty Seated Dime analysis approach and to build a separate reference page for each kit variation. The first Estes design to be analyzed is the K-2 Mark since I had images from recent eBay sales and a kit that is currently listed.

When building the individual kit pages, I am borrowing images from eBay sellers until I return home from this China expat assignment and can shoot my own kits. When I do not own a kit, then there is no choice but to borrow an eBay image. My goal is educational in nature and hope that eBay sellers will not mind. In addtion, I though it might be fun to add the Estes catalog artwork for the kits. To accomplish, I'm capturing the .jpg files from Ninfinger catalogs and cropping/editing as necessary.

Here is the link that will get you to the early Estes kit database. Then scroll down to the K-2 kits and click on each link to view the individual kit pages. Again, this effort is designed to be educational and I would invite feedback and help to populate pages as they are created.

http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/data1.htm

Dear Gerry,
I second Joe's comments regarding the addition of the variations that are so important to the value of a collectible kit. The variations (and there can be a dozen or more for a single kit) can mean the difference in hundreds of dollars regarding value in some cases. Also, I would encourage you to go far beyond the past year's prices realized on eBay in determining a high, low and median range of prices. (Joe, by the way, has the most comprehensive realized price list, in an Excel document, that I've ever seen, going back five or more years. Joe, hope you don't mind me mentioning that! But of course it's proprietary to Joe because he's done a great deal of work on this. His list literally has hundreds of entries, regarding Estes, Centuri (and other) kits, with variations noted.)

Of course, the current year is always important (especially in this economy) in knowing what a kit might bring now as opposed to five years ago. But it's still good to track these things over a much longer period of time than a single year in determining their value. In fact, it's even more important because it gives you an idea of what the kits brought in an "up" economy versus what they're bringing in a "down" economy.

When I was editor of Art & Antiques magazine, for instance, I covered sales of art and furniture often at Sotheby's and Christie's. I once saw a Goddard-Townsend 18th Century kneehole desk go from $30,000 to $3.5 million in less than a minute. (Two bidders wanted it and neither wanted to give it up.) Would that same desk go for that amount today. Maybe, maybe not, but in determining its value, I would always take that sale into account. I only wish I owned that desk, no matter the price! :)

As for images, some of us can probably help you in that regard. Sorry for such a long post regarding this. As Joe said, you are to be commended for doing this. It's great to have your experience from the world of numismatics brought to model rocketry.

All best,
Mark

[mojo1986]

Dear Gerry,
I second Joe's comments regarding the addition of the variations that are so important to the value of a collectible kit. The variations (and there can be a dozen or more for a single kit) can mean the difference in hundreds of dollars regarding value in some cases. Also, I would encourage you to go far beyond the past year's prices realized on eBay in determining a high, low and median range of prices. (Joe, by the way, has the most comprehensive realized price list, in an Excel document, that I've ever seen, going back five or more years. Joe, hope you don't mind me mentioning that! But of course it's proprietary to Joe because he's done a great deal of work on this. His list literally has hundreds of entries, regarding Estes, Centuri (and other) kits, with variations noted.)

All best,
Mark

Mark, I don't mind the fact that you mentioned it. And if Gerry's list continues to evolve into the valuable document I think it could be, I will gladly send my information over to him for incorporation into his database.

Joe

[gerryfortin]

Dear Mark and Joe,

Your kind word are much appreciated as is the insight into the additional research informaton that might be stored in privates databases.

If you read my bio, I am passionate about numismatics but have taken the Liberty Seated Dime research to a point of diminishing returns. After jumping back into model rocketry, it was obvious that early Estes kits are quite historical and they do have an adequate collecting community. But pricing, population and rarity information were not easily available (on the web) thus the idea to take the numismatic approach and apply it to Estes model rocket kits. I do love to research the unknown (at least unknown to me) but also enjoy using the internet to publish that information and to create a community.

Currently, I work in China as an expat but that "adventure" will come to an end this year with a return to Maine for a semi permanent retirement. To fill the open time, I have aspirations to upgrade the Liberty Seated Dime reference website with improved photography and secondly, to build a comprehensive Estes model rocketry website in the same manner. It is recognized that I'm a newbie to Estes model rocketry and may be "discovering" what is already known by the "elders" of the hobby. I hope that we can collaborate towards a common vision of a state of the art Estes reference website. It will take time and information. The more information that can be secured through prior research the better else it becomes a personal project mainly from watching eBay every day.

The idea of posting historical kit pricings to show shifts in up/down economies is excellent. If you had access to the subscription portion of the Seated Dime website, you would notice that I publish the pricing trends (Coin World) from 1963 through 2003. Collectors can clearly see the appreciate potential of rare coins. I'm sure there is a similar trend from rare Estes kits with ups/downs from a year to year basis due to macroeconomics.

Again thank-you for the inputs and I will continue the slow updates. If you do wish to send me "personal and private" information for review and ideas to post, I will respect that private nature of the information until there is a consensus for opening to the public.

[gerryfortin]

Well it is May Day here in China and a national holiday. The free time from office will allow for updates to the Estes model rocket database. So far, here are the updates that readers will note;

1. Top 10 eBay Pricing and Count tables are updated and expanded to Top 15. The Maxi Pershing is in top spot as most expensive kit in the Estes line up. The Count table clearly shows that scale models are always popular (11/15 are replica model kits).

2. All three database tables updated to April 30 pricing activities. In general, pricing seem to be drifting down a bit due to the recession.

3. Table 3 with Estes kits starting at catalog #2000 onward was updated with the 7000 series boxed kits, the 2400 series 2009 kits, 2800 series Germany boxed kits, 3000 series kits to be released this summer and the 7200 Walmart series kits that are now appearing on eBay.

Also look for individual model rocket page insertions throughout the database. This is a time consuming exercise but I do hope to add at least 10 pages per week and hopefully finish the database in 1-2 years time.

Also need to update the cross reference table with the 2009 kits......much to do!

I am heading home during second half of May and can't wait to spend some time on unfinished rocket projects.

[gerryfortin]

Well the May 10th eBay kit update is online.

Building the individual kit pages is taking much longer than I had hoped for but there is some limited progress in the database 1 and 2 tables.

eBay prices are tending on the weak side.

Enjoy!

[Mikus]

Yo Gerry, the Kit Catalog Numbers 0650 - 1299 listing is broken at 867. :(


0867 Airborne Surveillance Missile 1983-1985 - 1 Partially Assembled Kit 3 <font size="2" face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"

[gerryfortin]

Mikus....yes, I am aware of the problem. I tried to upload new version of database1 file on Monday and the upload failed mid stream due to connection timeouts. Since then I'm been running around Shanghai-Wuxi area and can't get a good enough internet connection to try to upload and correct. Please have patience with me until I fixed maybe tonight or tomorrow. All of this would be simpler if I was in the USA with a roadrunner connection.

[Ltvscout]

Since then I'm been running around Shanghai-Wuxi area
Eat any fried scorpions lately? :D

[gerryfortin]

Eat any fried scorpions lately? :D

Naw....just snake and pig intestines.....sometimes you just dont ask and it is ok.

The database1 link is fixed and back to normal. Will add a few more individual K kit pages based on Doc's eBay listings. Strong prices on several early kits!

[Mikus]

No problem, I just wanted to make sure you knew. :)

I sure hope you get to come home soon. :D

Mikus....yes, I am aware of the problem. I tried to upload new version of database1 file on Monday and the upload failed mid stream due to connection timeouts. Since then I'm been running around Shanghai-Wuxi area and can't get a good enough internet connection to try to upload and correct. Please have patience with me until I fixed maybe tonight or tomorrow. All of this would be simpler if I was in the USA with a roadrunner connection.

[gerryfortin]

I sure hope you get to come home soon. :D

Yes...coming back to grand USA on May 20 for a few weeks of home leave. Top priority is CMASS launch on May 30 and finishing a vintage Omega before then.

[gerryfortin]

The trip back home to Maine was uneventful. We like them that way. But now it is jetlag time so using the earlier Saturday morning hours to update the website. Progress is definitely being made on website content. The individual kit pages are becoming obvious as a reader scans the database pages. The individual kit pages are still going through several rounds of tweaking until I like the format. Hopefully, I'm done tweaking and the current format is it. I need to focus on adding more pages now that I home and have access to the rocket collection.

Yesterday, I photo'ed many of my K kits and will use those images to replace eBay photos. I like the light blue background for highlights light colored kits.

Mojo1986 was kind enough to send me his historical pricing database and that information will be slowly transfered into the individual kit pages so folks can see if kits are increasing or decreasing in price. Let's face it, an Estes kit collection is a substantial amount of money and should be considered as a small investment beyond the fun of learning about all the old kits and owning them.

My kit collection increases every week and now totals 408. Thank goodness I am still working and can afford to pour monies into the collection otherwise I would have to sell some Liberty Seated dimes to fund the new passion.

[gerryfortin]

Back in China once again and nearly through another round of jetlag. Being awake during early morning hours allowed for tabulating another Estes kit database update. The official June 13 update is online. The Database 1 table (kits through 1299) continues to grow in size as I add more of the K kit variations including hang tag and facecard changes in the early Pre Damon Era and Post Damon years.

You will note that Estes eBay prices are under strong pressure and are moving upwards. There are numerous new High Price entries. One major buyer has stepped in and appears to be assembling a significant collection. The Top 15 Most Expensive Kits table is now exclusively kits priced at $200 or higher. It appears to be a good time for those who want to trim back or dispose of their collections.

During the Maine home leave, I photographed many of the Estes kits and have nice images for the individual kit description pages. Those images are with me in China and progress on adding a few more individual kit pages should be noted in the next two weeks.

I'm planning to be back to USA for the July 18 CMASS Amesbury launch........can't wait!

[scigs30]

I thought I paid a lot for my collection over the last 3 years, but it is nothing compared to what 9**K is spending. In one day he spent over 900.00 dollars.

[gerryfortin]

Indeed 9***K is on a buying binge and one cannot outbid this individual for difficult kits.

[timster68]

Yes he is. I was outbid on a Der V-3 today. I didn't know they were worth $66!

[gerryfortin]

I was zero for four on lesser important kits (including Advanced Target Drone. that was an open hole in the collection) and fear that the upcoming K kits will meet the same fate.

Including postage the Der V3 went for $73, a substantial amount.

Upon checking the lastest closed auctions in Watching section, the Honest John #1919 sold for $160 to our bidder. Indeed, it is a good time to be selling kits on eBay.

[Leo]

Well, he does get outbid once in a while.

Here (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=260418401000) e.g. :eek:

[Ltvscout]

Well, he does get outbid once in a while.

Here (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=260418401000) e.g. :eek:
Heh. Glad to see that Joe made a killing. ;)

[gerryfortin]

Well, my China apartment PC suffered major HD failure this week. Good news is all the data files were salvaged; bad news is I lost all applications including website management and image processing capabilities. As a result, there will be a long delay in the next Estes database update until I return to US in mid July and no progress on individual kit description pages.

On a positive note, the Dell lasted over 4 years without a HD failure and traveled around the world numerous times.

Will continue to monitor eBay kit sales and post a significant update in late July.

[scigs30]

I hope some of you are selling your vintage kits, I know I am driving up the bid cost on Ebay, and 9**k us still out bidding me. My budget is 150 per kit and he still outbids that amount.

[gerryfortin]

I hope some of you are selling your vintage kits, I know I am driving up the bid cost on Ebay, and 9**k us still out bidding me. My budget is 150 per kit and he still outbids that amount.

Your pain is shared as 9**k is most aggressive regardless of my bids. I hoped to secure a few of the tougher kits this weekend but was skunked again. Clearly prices are being driven up by all involved and the sellers are benefiting.

Was able to pick up a lovely K-39 Saturn V with pre-Damon yellow hang tag outside of ebay past week.

If one does step back and look at the current eBay situation, demand clearly outweighs supply. It only takes a few new collectors to move into Estes kits to drive up demand and prices in a hurry. Imagine if Estes kit collecting grows in a structured manner with an active market emerging on and off eBay? Currently pricing levels would appear to be bargains.

[traveler]

9***k !!!!!!!

I just bumped into him.

Is he really paying a fair price?

Here - http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=120438813221

And especially here for the Estes Farside-X - http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&item=320388309379

Look at the bid history list on that one!!!


:cool:

[gerryfortin]

9***K is over paying for kits. Just look at the historical pricing data on my website and then compare to amounts paid by 9***K. The problem is 9***K is dominating eBay at the moment and not allowing anyone else the chance to purchase. I've tracked his habits closely since I watch each Estes kit listing for the database. 9***K is also buying duplicate kits as is the case with two Nebulion Warrior kits offered about 7 days apart. I wanted one of the two for my collection (it is a difficult kit to find) but 9***K aggressively bought both examples.

9***K should back off a bit and share; then he might be spending less as bidding returns to a more "normal" pace.

[LeeR]

9***K should back off a bit and share; then he might be spending less as bidding returns to a more "normal" pace.

Guys like this don't share, don't want to share, cannot spell "share" if you spot them 4 of the letters. It is all about having everything out there that is up for grabs. "I have it all, and you have none." I think price is meaningless to some of these bidders, it has to be a big power grab.

A few years ago I was looking for deals on Saito 4-stroke RC airplane engines. There was a guy that was buying everything, and I mean EVERYTHING. He was buying new engines for way more than you'd pay in a hobby store. I figured he was terminal ,and spending his bucks in his few remaining days. After a couple months he disappeared. I always wondered if he ran out of money, or ran out of time ...

:)

[gerryfortin]

Well, my China apartment PC suffered major HD failure this week. Good news is all the data files were salvaged; bad news is I lost all applications including website management and image processing capabilities. As a result, there will be a long delay in the next Estes database update until I return to US in mid July and no progress on individual kit description pages.

On a positive note, the Dell lasted over 4 years without a HD failure and traveled around the world numerous times.

Will continue to monitor eBay kit sales and post a significant update in late July.

Plans to return home to USA are finalized and a significant ESTES kit pricing update should appear around July 25. EBay sales have been a tad slow of late but still expect the total number of captured listings to top 3400; a significant amount. Working with Mojo1986's database, I've also fine tuned the K kit variant listings for better visibility on early kit rarity including the various packing configurations. Finally, I've started to track pricings from July 1 onward separately. Eventually, a pricing range for February 08 through June 09 will be posted followed by more recent 2H 09 activity.

I simply cannot wait to return home to attend CMASS Aug 1 luanch and NERRF later in the month. This will be the first time to attend a major event such as NERRF. The build pile (vs. kits for collection) is growing; one sometime loses perspective on the amount of kits ordered online until returning home to see the shipping boxes.........

[traveler]

9***k is at it again tonight!!!!!

Bid summary: 30 bids within the last hour; 28 wins. 340 items bid on within the last 30 days. :eek:

Is that normal?




:cool:

[traveler]

9***k just took/won a #1284 Space Shuttle kit.

He placed one bid with 5 seconds left to go in the auction.

12 bidders participated in this auction making 27 bids.




::cool:

[traveler]

This guy must be bored.

Again with 5 seconds to go when he placed his bid, he just took a ESTES E2X #2026 ATHENA MODEL ROCKET SEALED KIT.

It's easy to follow what he does. Just run an ebay search for "rocket" and sort the list by time.




:cool:

[traveler]

And again.

5 seconds to go.

I clicked on the next rocket on the ebay search list with 3 minutes to go. I watched the new java enabled ebay page count the seconds down. At 5 seconds to go, the number of bidders went up by one and the high bid changed. Then clicking on the bid history list, there he is again.

Does he build or fly rockets? Or just punch in $501.00 on any and all his ebay bids? (see my post above regarding the Farside-X; winning bid 501.00)




:cool:

[gerryfortin]

Yes, 9***k is at it again. He went absent for a few days which allowed me to pick up a number of kits from a seller named carboy. The SCUD kit looked to be in gem condition and is a most difficult find.

I believe 9***k uses a sniping program whereby a bid is entered in advance and is timed to go off at 5 seconds before the auction closing time. His bidding pattern is too similar to be done manually.

You are correct, simple enter a huge bid into a sniping program and walk away. Guaranteed to win all lots....

As I watch the lots acquired by 9***k, it is apparent that he is building a complete Estes kit collection against the listing I've placed on the website. That was the intent to stimulate more Estes kit collectors and build an active market for sealed kits, but 9***k is aggressive and shutting down others.

[scigs30]

I am glad I was able to get my collection over the last 3 years. For the economy tanking, Estes rockets are going for a fortune on Ebay.

[gerryfortin]

I am glad I was able to get my collection over the last 3 years. For the economy tanking, Estes rockets are going for a fortune on Ebay.

Indeed this is an accurate observation. The upward trend started about 3 months ago. Here is a short case study for kit #1976 Jupiter-C. Scale or semi scale models are consistently in demand followed by the exotic kits from the early 80's. K kits are in another world.

Here are the Jupiter-C sale prices in chronological order from Feb 2008 through June 2009

53, 46, 50, 59, 41, 61, 35, 52, 51, 103, 54, 54, 49, 72, 46, 46, 56, 57, 71, 70, 74, 73

Now starting July 2009

70, 63

The last six sales appear to be about $20 higher than the typical price range for prior 18 kits.

I've notice a similar situation with other popular kits.

The K kits are under strong upward pricing pressure and current pricing should bring out more supply until the demand:supply reaches balance.

[traveler]

Nice website gerry!!!



Here's the recent Estes Jupiter C sales that I found:

July 19 ..... $46 + 5.50 shipping
July 15 ..... $51 + 10.70 shipping
July 10 ..... $52 + 10.70 shipping



Finally I was able to get something yesterday! I guess 9***k took a day off!
Got the Estes Explorer Aquarius (#2016),
and the Centuri Mercury Capsule.
I can build a scale Mercury Redstone now that I have the 2" diameter capsule.




:cool:

[gerryfortin]

Well folks, I made it back to Maine safely and first day home is a washout. The bright side is much time to work on the long overdue Estes kit update.

The 0651 -1299 kit update is now online with much effort to add details for the K kits. You will immediately notice the changes. I used two sources for the update. Source 1 was Mojo1986 excel database and his tracking of 2004-2005 kit sales. The second source was TimiD's collection images. The K kit variants are still not fully capture but the current update is a significant step.

I moved the Alpha II to be listed as 1416/EK-25 rather than 1203/EK-25 after purchasing a kit and seeing the facecard first hand. Are there separate kits marked as 1416/EK-25 and 1203/EK-25???

BTW, has anyone seen a 1220/K20 Mars Snooper...this is with the green skill level facecard but not the Mars Snooper II with green skill level facecard? I ask since not seeing the kit listed by Mojo, TimiD or YORF. I bought a gem example two weeks ago and finally had chance to inspect it last night. Suspect this is a rare kit!

The balance of the database updates will occur today including the eBay tables etc... just a lot of work to catch up and no model rocket kit building time.....

[mojo1986]

<BTW, has anyone seen a 1220/K20 Mars Snooper...this is with the green skill level facecard but not the Mars Snooper II with green skill level facecard? I ask since not seeing the kit listed by Mojo, TimiD or YORF. I bought a gem example two weeks ago and finally had chance to inspect it last night. Suspect this is a rare kit!>

Hi Gerry. I suspect that is a rare kit too! Can you post a photo here on YORF?

Joe

[gerryfortin]

Website update is finished. The Top 15 most expensive kits is now the >$225 club.

Mojo...will try to take a photo of the 1220/K20 Snooper this weekend when the rains stop. When I first saw an image of the kit, I thought it was a Snooper II with typical green skill level facecard layout. But closer checking revealed it to be the K20 Snooper model.

I also was lucky two months ago on eBay and cherry picked a no hang tag Star Blazer (with free kit sticker) out of a late 1960s lot of nose cones, tubes and balsa wood. The seller did not take a picture of the Star Blazer kit seperately, rather letting it sit among the other stuff.

[mycrofte]

Hmmmm...

Seems odd that 9***k took a few days off from eBay and, out of shear coincidence, gerry states that he "just" got back to Maine... ;)

[Jimid123]

Well folks, I made it back to Maine safely and first day home is a washout. The bright side is much time to work on the long overdue Estes kit update.

The 0651 -1299 kit update is now online with much effort to add details for the K kits. You will immediately notice the changes. I used two sources for the update. Source 1 was Mojo1986 excel database and his tracking of 2004-2005 kit sales. The second source was TimiD's collection images. The K kit variants are still not fully capture but the current update is a significant step.

I moved the Alpha II to be listed as 1416/EK-25 rather than 1203/EK-25 after purchasing a kit and seeing the facecard first hand. Are there separate kits marked as 1416/EK-25 and 1203/EK-25???

BTW, has anyone seen a 1220/K20 Mars Snooper...this is with the green skill level facecard but not the Mars Snooper II with green skill level facecard? I ask since not seeing the kit listed by Mojo, TimiD or YORF. I bought a gem example two weeks ago and finally had chance to inspect it last night. Suspect this is a rare kit!

The balance of the database updates will occur today including the eBay tables etc... just a lot of work to catch up and no model rocket kit building time.....

Hi Gerry, It is Jimid not TimiD Not a big deal You Take Care Gerry, Jimi

[gerryfortin]

Hmmmm...

Seems odd that 9***k took a few days off from eBay and, out of shear coincidence, gerry states that he "just" got back to Maine... ;)

I hope this comment was in pure fun.... 9***K does not live in China as my shadow :)

Swear to god and hope to die..... :D

[gerryfortin]

Hi Gerry, It is Jimid not TimiD Not a big deal You Take Care Gerry, Jimi

Hi JimiD....sorry, jetlag is a terrible thing to experience. Sometimes you are walking around in a partial sleep. Driving is even worst if one is brave enough.

At 2:00pm today, I was looking through Peter Always' Rockets of the World and just about fell off the chair.

Believe me, there is no resemblence between me and who ever is 9***k.

[mycrofte]

Just thought I would put in a plug for the few conspiracy buffs here!

:D

[gerryfortin]

<BTW, has anyone seen a 1220/K20 Mars Snooper...this is with the green skill level facecard but not the Mars Snooper II with green skill level facecard? I ask since not seeing the kit listed by Mojo, JimiD or YORF. I bought a gem example two weeks ago and finally had chance to inspect it last night. Suspect this is a rare kit!>

Hi Gerry. I suspect that is a rare kit too! Can you post a photo here on YORF?

Joe

Joe, here are the pictures for your review. So what do you think?

[gerryfortin]

Mojo1986....you've been quiet of late and probably on vacation? Looking forward to your comments concerning the 1220/K20 Mars Snooper.

[InFlight]

Yes, 9***k is at it again. He went absent for a few days which allowed me to pick up a number of kits from a seller named carboy. The SCUD kit looked to be in gem condition and is a most difficult find.

I believe 9***k uses a sniping program whereby a bid is entered in advance and is timed to go off at 5 seconds before the auction closing time. His bidding pattern is too similar to be done manually.

You are correct, simple enter a huge bid into a sniping program and walk away. Guaranteed to win all lots....

As I watch the lots acquired by 9***k, it is apparent that he is building a complete Estes kit collection against the listing I've placed on the website. That was the intent to stimulate more Estes kit collectors and build an active market for sealed kits, but 9***k is aggressive and shutting down others.Oh, so it was you who out bid me on the SCUD! :chuckle:

Its all good Gerry
.

[gerryfortin]

Ray,

Nice to meet you on the board! Your Estes clone kits are without peers and I have about 6 in the build pile. Keep up the good work.

As for the SCUD...my apology. I've also been aggressive in building the collection and the SCUD is a tough kit to locate....so went for it.

[InFlight]

Ray,

Nice to meet you on the board! Your Estes clone kits are without peers and I have about 6 in the build pile. Keep up the good work.

As for the SCUD...my apology. I've also been aggressive in building the collection and the SCUD is a tough kit to locate....so went for it.
Well, I am glad you won it and not 9***k! :chuckle:

.

[traveler]

WooooooooooooooooooooooooHoooooooooooooooooooooooo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :chuckle: :D

Bagged a good one!!!!!

Got the Centuri Mercury Redstone kit (KS-1)!!! New in the sealed bag!

No 9***k around! But then he got one of these a few weeks back at a very high price. :eek: I got mine for far less.

Funny. The Centuri Mercury Capsule kit (Cat. No. MR-36) that I bought a couple weeks ago arrived today MIB. Looks like I won't have to scratch build a Mercury Redstone after all!

[snip]

Finally I was able to get something yesterday! I guess 9***k took a day off!
Got the Estes Explorer Aquarius (#2016),
and the Centuri Mercury Capsule.
I can build a scale Mercury Redstone now that I have the 2" diameter capsule.


Hmmmmmmmmm. Or maybe I still will scratch build. Nice option to have.




:cool:

[mojo1986]

Mojo1986....you've been quiet of late and probably on vacation? Looking forward to your comments concerning the 1220/K20 Mars Snooper.

Hi Gerry. I would say that the kit you have is quite scarce. I suspect, though, that some of those K-20 green skill level kits that I entered into the database as Snooper II's could have been original Snoopers..................the reason for that is that I didn't realise the original Snooper came as a skill level kit before they switched to the smaller Snooper II. So you can't take the data as gospel..............doubtless there are some errors. Still, the kit has to be quite scarce because of the transition to the Snooper II.

The database shows the original Snooper as being made from 1965 to 1974, and then the Snooper II carrying on form 1975 to 1980. I believe the skill level kits began in 1973 if memory serves me well, so just a couple of years for the kit you have.

Joe

[Jimid123]

Hi Gerry. I would say that the kit you have is quite scarce. I suspect, though, that some of those K-20 green skill level kits that I entered into the database as Snooper II's could have been original Snoopers..................the reason for that is that I didn't realise the original Snooper came as a skill level kit before they switched to the smaller Snooper II. So you can't take the data as gospel..............doubtless there are some errors. Still, the kit has to be quite scarce because of the transition to the Snooper II.

The database shows the original Snooper as being made from 1965 to 1974, and then the Snooper II carrying on form 1975 to 1980. I believe the skill level kits began in 1973 if memory serves me well, so just a couple of years for the kit you have.

Joe


Correct Joe, The skill level packaging first came out in 1973. This package that Gerry has is from around 1974/75. I opened my Rocket Shop in March of 1973 and all the first packaging of the skill level kits were pre-priced by Estes in the white oval on the hag tags for the first year. Estes stop pre-pricing in 1974. Take Care, Jimi

[gerryfortin]

Hi Gerry. I would say that the kit you have is quite scarce. I suspect, though, that some of those K-20 green skill level kits that I entered into the database as Snooper II's could have been original Snoopers..................the reason for that is that I didn't realise the original Snooper came as a skill level kit before they switched to the smaller Snooper II. So you can't take the data as gospel..............doubtless there are some errors. Still, the kit has to be quite scarce because of the transition to the Snooper II.

The database shows the original Snooper as being made from 1965 to 1974, and then the Snooper II carrying on form 1975 to 1980. I believe the skill level kits began in 1973 if memory serves me well, so just a couple of years for the kit you have.

Joe

Hi Joe,

Thank you for the insight and explanation on the 1220/K-20 Mars Snooper. Since neither of us has recognize or seen an example of the Astron Mars Snooper with green skill level packaging, then the kit is obviously scarce or rare. The challenge is to watch for future listings on eBay and determine a relative rarity. Knowing your attention to details (per the excel database), it would be difficult for me to assume tha you missed a 1220/K20 Mars Snooper and recorded it as a Mars Snooper II. The Mars Snooper as a green skill level kit is rare but it will take time to determine how rare. In coin collecting, each mint's annual coinage records are public information. It would be great to have access to some type of Estes production records, then we could form an estimate of kits surviving as collectables and establish a rarity range. Otherwise setting a rarity estimate is rather subjective based on auction appearances and manual tracking by a few of us.

Has anyone approached the Estes people to determine is they kept production records and if those records might still be available?

Gerry

[gerryfortin]

Just a head's up that the Estes kit database is updated for eBay activity through August 9. Recent activity is a mixed bag to report. K kit sales are down after collections being dispersed. Scale kits are bringing strong monies including Space Shuttle with red fuel tank. Average kits are flat to slightly down. The wave of Walmart kits on eBay seems to have decreased as I doubt anyone can make a buck by going the eBay route.

I will be attending NERRF this year to gain a sense of high power rocketry.

[InFlight]

9***K is back in action as they just won this SS CASSIOPEIA for $89.00.

SS CASSIOPEIA ebay listing (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=160353938594&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT&autorefresh=true)

Too high for my blood. :chuckle:

.

[gerryfortin]

A mighty price considering the main body tube is creased and unusable. I saw it as a builder's kit not a collector item.

But in defense of 9***k, this buyer has been on the sidelines for many of the auctions recently and the result is everyone has a chance to play and win. Maybe the person is reading this forum?

[traveler]

Sometimes 9***k doesn't need to be around to generate an astronomical final bid price.

Check this one out. Final bid $416. No 9***k around.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120456215407&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

Now there are four rockets in the bundle, but isn't this buy really for the included Estes Farside?




:cool:

[Jimid123]

Sometimes 9***k doesn't need to be around to generate an astronomical final bid price.

Check this one out. Final bid $416. No 9***k around.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=120456215407&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

Now there are four rockets in the bundle, but isn't this buy really for the included Estes Farside?




:cool:


Hi, I am the guy who won these 4 Estes kits at $416.00. $104.00 per kit is a good buy on these kits as these sell on the average much higher than $104.00 per kit. So if I were to sell these kits one by one on Ebay I would get my money back and than some. You Take Care, Jimi

[traveler]

Hi, I am the guy who won these 4 Estes kits at $416.00. $104.00 per kit is a good buy on these kits as these sell on the average much higher than $104.00 per kit. So if I were to sell these kits one by one on Ebay I would get my money back and than some. You Take Care, Jimi
Congrats Jimi !!!!!

Especially on the Farside!!!

Are you going to build any one of those four rocket kits?


:cool:

[Jimid123]

Congrats Jimi !!!!!

Especially on the Farside!!!

Are you going to build any one of those four rocket kits?


:cool:

Hi, Thank You, No, I already have them built. These will go in my Collection of vintage unopened kits. I also have the 1960s Pre-Damon Firside and Firside X In Mint Unopened packages. So I am not just a collector I also build kits. I have been in this hobby since the early 1960s . If you like to see many photos of my vintage kits go into the kit collection section on this site under "Some Kits In My Collection" and you will find many pics of some of what I have in my collection.

You Take Care, Jimi

[gerryfortin]

Agree with Jimi. His purchase price was reasonable. Please check the Estes kit database for K kits with Damon era yellow double oval hangtags. These kits bring more than $100 each.

[Ltvscout]

Hi, I am the guy who won these 4 Estes kits at $416.00. $104.00 per kit is a good buy on these kits as these sell on the average much higher than $104.00 per kit. So if I were to sell these kits one by one on Ebay I would get my money back and than some. You Take Care, Jimi
Well, now we know Jimi is i***2. ;)

Looks like a good buy to me, Jimi.

[traveler]

Well, now we know Jimi is i***2. ;)

Looks like a good buy to me, Jimi.

And we know he is Not 9***k.

BTW I bought something from Jimi on ebay last month. (yes, I left good feedback)


:cool:

[gerryfortin]

Well I'm back in China until September 15 and have some free time this morning. The Estes kit database is approaching 3900 entries and I though about how rare the early Pre Damon K kits really are given the number of eBay appearances since Feb 2008.

The Pre Damon K kits are those with no hang tags or those with the yellow hang tag with red rocket emblem. Here is a quick count of the number of Pre Damon K kits that appeared on eBay in the last 1.5 years. If you are a collector, this really puts the availability of early K kits into perspective.

1....Scout K-1
4....Mark K-2
3....Space Plane K-3
3....Streak K-4
0....Apogee K-5
4... Apogee II K-5
0....Ranger K-6
2....Phantom K-7
1....Skyhook K-8
3....Spaceman K-9
1....Cobra K-10
0....WAC Corporal K-11
2....Farside K-12
1....Farside-X K-12
2....Falcon K-13
3....Drifter K-14
2....Sprite K-15
0....Delta K-16
0....Aerobee K-17
2?....X-Ray K-18....there were 2 kits with yellow hang tags but I did not check pre or post Damon
2....Invader K-19
2....Mars Snopper K-20
2+....Gemini Titan K-21....there were 3 kits with yellow hang tags but did not check pre or post Damon and not included in the total
3....V-2 K-22
1....Big Bertha K-23
6....Gyroc K-24
0....Alpha K-25
1....Arcas K-26
3?...Honest John K-27...again 2 kits with yellow hang tag but did not check pre or post damon and not included in total
2....Thor Agena-B K-28
1....Saturn 1B K-29
1....Little Joe II K-30
1....Star Blazer K-31
2....Starlight K-32
1....Trident K-33
0....Nighthawk K-34
4....Constellation K-35
0?....Saturn K-36
0.....Scrambler K-37
2.....Avenger K-38
7....Semi Scale Saturn V K-39
4....Midget K-40
2....Mercury Redstone K-41
4....Orbital Transport K-42
1?....Mars Lander K-43.....not sure if pre or post Damon
0....Birdie K-44

So the semi scale Saturn V kit was the most available pre Damon listing followed by the Gyroc.

Since I was a new collector on the scene, how many of the above kits were purchased by me? About 14-15 based on my notes....but still a long way to go.

Will be returning to Maine on or around September 15 and hope to have another Estes database update posted at that time. Should be over 4000 entries by then.

Happy flying....

[gerryfortin]

If one does the math, 86 pre Damon K Kits against 3900 eBay listings, then the appearance frequency is only 2.2%.

Thought someone might want to know.

Once I'm back to US on a more steady basis, I'd like to re-start the effort on K Kit registry sets. Jimid will be the leader if he decides to participate!

[gerryfortin]

When one has a detailed excel tracking sheet for eBay Estes rocket kits, then all kinds of usless information can be derived... :o

What do you think is the total recorded value of 3968 eBay kits since February 2008? These are kits offered at a normal auction; only sealed kits and no Buy It Now results.

The answer......$205,000. Estes kits are a reasonably size market but remember that each kit probably has an average shipping cost of $6. So $24,000 of the $205,000 is nothing but the cost of moving these kits from point A to point B.

Just thought you would want to know on a Labor Day weekend. I have one more week in China, then back home to the grand old USA!

[traveler]

Wow!!!

Can't believe how "lucky" I just was.

Just got an Estes Mercury Redstone #1921 MIP for 56.


:D

[gerryfortin]

Hi there....after a long trip back home and 3 hours sleep, the September Ebay update is online. The number of lots featured in the database is now over 4000. What are the general observations?

1. There is little activity on the early K kits. Supply has dried up accept for an occasion kit here and there. I believe the K kits are quite under valued given other collectable markets.

2. Prices for common kits are weak and this is a good time to buy as bargains can be had. I still have not bought the V-2 kits or any of the Star War kits to complete those sections of the collection. Maybe now is the time?

3. Certain kits are in strong demand for reasons I don't understand. The AIM-9 Sidewinder is now selling for $50+ and the Jupiter-C is also showing some pricing increase.

4. There is a lack of availabilty for the exotic 1980 and 1981 kits. You don't see them appear with any frequency.

That is about all for now. I bought out a dealer's built collection of 20 kits that included the Super Big Bertha, LOC Viper III, Aerotech Initiator, Comanchee, Big Daddy, Long Shot, Prowler etc. The Prowler is really a lousy kit with 18mm engine mount. This beast needs at least D power to get to respectable height. What were Estes folks thinking?

Need to prepare them for September 19 CMASS launch at Amesbury field.

[El Cheapo]

So what is NIP Estes Orbital Transport going for?

[gerryfortin]

So what is NIP Estes Orbital Transport going for?

You can look up either the early K kit (K-42), skill level kit (1242) or the re-release at this link www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/home.htm

[gerryfortin]

Last night, four mint condition kits from the early 1970s sold on eBay. I bought 3 of the 4 kits and missed the last one due to being tied up on a business phone call with China. The three kits that I bought were;

TK45 Beta with double oval hangtag and pink double panel art card

K14 Drifter with double oval hangtag and brown double panel art card. I believe that no hangtag kits are more common than this double oval hangtag example.

K11 WAC Corporal with double oval hangtag and yellow double panel art card. This a rare kit!

I missed the Skyhook due to inattention.

Hopefully within a few weeks, I will start posting individual kit pages with photography, descriptions and catalog graphics.

Thought some readers might enjoy this update.

[mycrofte]

I'm watching the Estes 2103 - 15th Anniversary Star Wars X-Wing on eBay ( item 330360269604). Does anyone know about this particular rocket?

I bought the small plastic one years ago for a friends kids but have never seen the kit version. I was wondering if it is OK and about how big it is when finished.

Not that I really need another rocket...

[jadebox]

I'm watching the Estes 2103 - 15th Anniversary Star Wars X-Wing on eBay ( item 330360269604). Does anyone know about this particular rocket?

I bought the small plastic one years ago for a friends kids but have never seen the kit version. I was wondering if it is OK and about how big it is when finished.

Not that I really need another rocket...

It's a nice kit, about 11" long. It's a lot nicer than the little toy plastic thing.

A sealed kit usually sells for around $50 on eBay.

For details, please see: http://www.modelrocketparts.com/page-x-wing-fighter-7.html

-- Roger

[mycrofte]

That one ended up going for $26 with $6 for shipping.

So, I take it the lasers and fins don't break off every time it lands like the plastic one!?!

[El Cheapo]

An Estes Mosquito just went for $33. Holy %&@# :eek:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290352643090&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT

[barone]

An Estes Mosquito just went for $33. Holy %&@# :eek:

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=290352643090&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT
****!...and I've been giving them away..... :o

[gerryfortin]

Don't know if anyone noticed, but a blue skill level Falcon with $1.50 pricing factory printed sold on eBay this weekend. Selling price was even $200 with shipping. There were none listed in the Estes kit database but I did buy one privately about 6 months ago for $125. At that time, I thought the $125 might have significant downside risk but this auction indicates that a few other folks recognize the rarity of the last issued Falcon kit. I don't believe you will find the $1.50 price in the catalogs.....if my memory is any good.

[Jeff Walther]

An Estes Mosquito just went for $33. Holy %&@# :eek:

No kidding. I have eleven of those at home, I think. Or is that the number I started with? Anyway, some largish number. However, all the bidding seems to have been between two bidders.

I also noticed an Alpha that went for $44. Alpha (http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=230378812365&ssPageName=STRK:MEWAX:IT)

I have more than ten of those in unopened kits as well. But again, all the action was between two bidders. You can't count on that repeating.

I also noticed that there was another identical (unless having the punch hole in place is significant) Alpha kit which ended in a similar time frame with no bids. The starting price on the spurned Alpha was $30. Yet another example of a high starting price scaring off bidders.

Also an example of bidders not looking around. That $30 Alpha is relisted. You would think that the losing bidder in the $44 auction would snatch up the $30 model.

[gerryfortin]

Thought it was time to perform an update but not much new news to report. Database now holds over 4200 entries. A few observations are worth noting;

1. eBay kit prices in general are weak. Kit are selling near the lower end of their pricing range. Exceptions are the scale kits that remain popular.

2. A few early K kits appeared during 2nd half of September but mostly random lots and not part of any significant collection being sold off. I worry about buying random kits due to their origins and kit conditions as sellers are not collectors but flea market folks.

3. In general, we do not see 1979-1981 released kits appearing on eBay. These creative designs are just not offered often.

I planned a major update to the reporting format in September and that has not happened. The database was restructured to track Feb'08-June'09 separately from July'09 onward lots. So the mechanism is in place to report any shifting trend at kit level from past 9 months to current timeframe. But time is the enemy to redo the html tables and present the new format.

You may want to know that I was the person to buy the large built rocket collections from Elmira NY. Next week I drive down to do local pickup.

[El Cheapo]

I agree that people do not know how to Ebay surf. I saw an Estes Phoenix go for $67 when there was also a "buy it now" for $43 that ended two days later.

I bid on an estes fin alignment jig the other day. Figured I'd go as high as $25. Ending bid was just shy of $67. Holy cow. I'll go buy some foam corp and burn up an exacto blade to achieve the same result.

[gerryfortin]

I traveled back to China on October 12 and will be here through end of month; therefore no full eBay pricing database update until early November. This also means that I'm missing the CMASS NEMROC launches on Oct 24, 25....which is a disappointment.

But I did want to comment on recent K Kits that appeared on eBay.

K-1 Scout with red facecard and pre Damon hang tag sold for nearly $250

K-4 Streak with white instruction sheet and no hang tag did not meet reserve and was relisted

K-9 Spaceman with pre Damon yellow hang tag sold for $63 which is below the low end of past two year pricing

K-15 Sprite with white instruction sheet and no hang tag was bid to strong $270 amount.

K-16 Delta, an early no hang tag kit reached $250 and appeared to be inexpensive at that amount.

K-20 Mars Snooper with pre Damon yellow hang tag sold for $195 which is in the lower range of the two year price results.

K-27 Honest John with purple facecard and pre Damon yellow hang tag sold for $160. I've noted this kit variant into the database

K-31 Star Blazer with yellow pre Damon hang tag went for a strong $200+ winning bid.

Thought someone might be interested in this information before it is posted in the November database update. K kits remain difficult to locate and are always under strong demand.

[gerryfortin]

I've returned from another long business trip and sadly the return date did not allow me to attend the November 7 CMASS launch. Let's hope for good weather on November 21 as this is the last CMASS launch of the year.

The November 8 Estes kit database update is online.

eBay volume appears to be increasing in last 30 days. Early K kits are appearing again though not as part of a major collection sell-off. K kit prices remain strong as collectors try to add these difficult kits to their collections. I've made contact with a serious K kit collector who has interest in adding his collection the the "registry" and help promote K kit collecting.

Prices for non K kits are a mixed bag. The general trend is towards weaker prices as eBay volume is out running the willingness of collectors to spend. It is really a buyer's market at the moment. But some kits are increasing in demand. A few come to mind including the National Space Plane, Deep Space Transport and AIM Sidewinder.

You will note that many built kits were added to the collection recently. This is the result of buying an Elmira rocket collection that was quite substantial. The previous owner, Mike Kalmar, was an active NAR member in the Pittsburg area and I am proud to preserve his collection. The prize of Mike's collection is a gem built and displayed USS Andromeda. The workmanship and preservation is simply oustanding. Many of the other rockets are also well built and just need a little cleaning and touch up. My daylight basement truly resembles a hobby shop with the additional of the Mike Kalmar collection. Will try to take and post a few images this week.

Drop me an email at wuximems@hotmail.com if you want to help out with the K kit open registry. Please consider the hours that I have spent building the Estes database and posting the information for everyone to use and enjoy. It would not take that much time to catalog your K kit collection and pass along the information for inclusion in the registry. The competition might be fun.....

[traveler]

Our old "friend" 9***k was active this weekend.

This weekend I notice his collecting went beyond rocket kits but still with a SpaceFlight theme. Purchased by 9***k in an auction was a Marco 1/48-scale Lunar Rover Mint in Box. One bid was made two seconds before the auction ended.

Just my speculation: 9***k must be a Museum or a very private collector. A Museum would have that kind of "unlimited" budget; so would a very private collector.


:cool:

[gerryfortin]

I've updated my own Estes K Kit registry set and added the type of hang tag found on each entry. You can see the set at http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/kkits/fortin.htm.

The first K Kit registry set will be easier to complete as all varieties of K kits are allowed as an acceptable entry. The K kits with no hang tag, the yellow preDamon with red rocket hang tag, the countdown hang tag and the yellow double oval post damon hang tag can all be included as an entry.

Following is competition scoring;

- The best average grade score possible is 3.0 if all kits are in gem condition.
- The highest set rating possible is 297.3 if all kits are listed and are all in gem preservation.

I hope the above information is helpful. Since go to the http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/kkits/kkit_index.htm page and click on the "here" link to download an excel file that is the registry template. You just need to fill in the template and email to me. I will try to get your collection posted with 48 hours.

[gerryfortin]

You will note that many built kits were added to the collection recently. This is the result of buying an Elmira rocket collection that was quite substantial. The previous owner, Mike Kalmar, was an active NAR member in the Pittsburgh area and I am proud to preserve his collection. The prize of Mike's collection is a gem built and displayed USS Andromeda. The workmanship and preservation is simply oustanding. Many of the other rockets are also well built and just need a little cleaning and touch up. My daylight basement truly resembles a hobby shop with the additional of the Mike Kalmar collection. Will try to take and post a few images this week.

Here are several picturs of the rocket collection as it sits in the daylight basement. First image is from left side of collection while the second image is from the right. The collection is a combination of my built rockets and the Mike Kalmar collection. There are at least another 10 mid to high power rockets not pictures, again from Mike Kalmar.

The last two images are of the rocket workshop on a completely ad hoc basis. Since taking some pictures of the rocket collection, I thought to snap a few of where this BAR spends considerable time when not in China.

[gerryfortin]

There is not much news associated with this update. Here are a few bullet points to capture items you may want to know;

1. eBay pricing is soft with many kits selling at average or below average prices. It is a buyer's market. The softness is throughout the entire Estes catalog including earlier colored skill level kits and the 13xx series release. Rare K kits are the exception, see below.

2. An early and rare K-32 Starlight with no hang tag realized an impressive $338. I hoped to add this kit to my collection but the winning bid was well beyond my estimate.

3. Mercury Atlas Classic Series continues to have excellent demand and prices are increasing.

Based on the forum discussion we had on the top exotic Estes kits, I've added a Top 20 Exotic kit table to the rocket collecting homepage. I realize our discussion was not a poll or scientific but we are close enough to bring attention to the classic Estes exotic kits as a group.

I would encourage a person to come forward to participate in K Kit registry. This concept is very popular in numismatics but so far there has been no response for model rocket kits.

That is it for now...the last CMASS launch including the night launch was much fun as the weather cooperated. I was able to fly a few of Mike Kalmar's rockets throughout the day.

[gerryfortin]

It is a quiet morning here in China and I've caught up with entries into the Estes kit prices database. A complete pricing update will occur once returning to US on December 19. But we have reached a significant milestone with the eBay price tracking project. The total number of kits sold reached the 5000 mark and the accumulated value of those kits is $250,000 give or take a few dollars. The 5000 kit milestone took about 21 months of sales tracking. Thought readers of this thread would like to know.

The database has an extensive amount of information that could prove to be useful in the future, that is if I can ever find time to complete the individual kit description pages and to add more content about pricing structure for each kit. Between Joe's look back into the 2004-2006 timeframe and current 2008 moving forward information, we have a solid 5+ years of detailed pricing for earlier K and skill level kits plus the exotics in the 13xx numbered series.

Here is an example of what is possible with the database. Please see the attachment which illustrates the 2008 and 2009 pricing results for 1997 Pathfinder. The gap in the trendgraph at datapoint 15 is the boundary between 2008 and 2009. I added a linear regression line to the data and that line is also shown. What is immediately obvious is Pathfinder pricing levels have increased from the low $20 range in early 2008 up to $30ish level during 2009. I've noted this trend during data entry as the Pathfinder is one of my favorite kits for the monies. At around $20 (including postage/handling), the Pathfinder kit seemed to be a bargain. Now its pricing may be more consistent with its perceived "value".

I hope to add these types of graphs to the individual kit description pages so readers will have a comprehensive look at the kit as a collectable item. But again, available time is the enemy since the Liberty Seated Dime website content also takes substantial effort as does working part time to fund rockets and coins..... :(

[gerryfortin]

The Estes pricing database is now current with 5000+ entries. eBay winning bids still favor buyers though I have feeling that pricing is starting to stabilize near average levels in the database. There has been a flood of 2187 Oracle digital video camera kits on eBay and one can be bought for $45-50 with a little patience. #2157 Saturn V kits are also plentiful and selling well at the database average price of $160.

There were two eBay listings during past two weeks that are worth noting. An early 1965-1967 vintage Mars Snooper kit that appeared to be near mint was bid to $468. Also, the same seller offered a gem Farside second edition no hang tag kit (blue rocket image, black letters) that sold for $306. I was the under bidder on the Mars Snooper but did win the Farside.

The Estes kit database is a strong success with page hit rate far exceeding those of my Liberty Seated Dime links. Given the strong interest level, I will try to add more individual kit description pages in the coming weeks. For some readers, seeing images of the rare early K kits is an important step towards considering the rocket kit collecting hobby.

I also plan to add a For Sale list to start moving along the growing amount of duplicates kits that are building up in the workshop.

This thread does not receive any responses of late. Please do not hesitate to provide your feedback on this Estes kit database effort. Words of encouragement or potential improvement are welcomed.

I'm still hopeful that a kit collector will come forward and list their K kit collection in the registry.

Merry Christmas to all BARs and happy building during the winter months.......

[gerryfortin]

Just a short note to announce that individual kit page count is approaching 70. Yes, still many more to go to build a comprehensive reference database. My immediate focus is to populated the K kits with illustrations for hang tag and facecards variations.

I'm also adjusting the Estes retail kit pricing information in the three eBay pricing tables to include range for the years/kit variant offered.

If anyone see a mis-speak or error in the individual kit page research, please do no hesitate to email me or contact via PM. The goal is for factual individual kit pages to serve as a solid collecting reference source. I do expect with time for the rarity estimates to become more sophisticated but for now, just an initial belief is offered.

[gerryfortin]

It is quiet around the house this morning and progress continues with adding individual kit descriptions to the Estes databases. The opportunity to study each Estes kit in detail and associated history is fascinating. The individual kit description count is over 100 and growing. The primary focus is on the early K kits and thanks to Jimid for posting images of his collection. Progress would not be as substantial without his images and insight. I also want to mention the importance of Mojo1986's rocketry database as a reference source for kit variants that have appeared on eBay.

The Estes rocketry home page needed a long overdue updating and that is complete. References were converted to links. I also added a link to Mojo1986's Excel Rocket Database as the document is loaded on my ISP.

Happy New Year to readers and collectors of Estes rocket kits. I believe 2010 will be a great year for our hobby.

[Gus]

Gerry,

Just want to start the new year by thanking you for all the work you put into this.

The kit descriptions are a great addition.

Thanks again,

Steve

[gerryfortin]

Steve...your comment is well appreciated.

[gerryfortin]

The next eBay pricing database will occur mid February as I'm traveling in Asia until around Feb 12. EBay pricing information is tracked and on hand with the database having close to 5300 entries.

The Estes rocket kit market is once again generally weak with few K kits coming on the market. Pricing behavior is somewhat strange as a Deep Space Transport (population 19 since tracking and recently under demand) and AIM9 Sidewinder (population 43) just sold for $43 and $50 respectively while a Sea Dart (population 5) sold for $49 and a mint blue skill level Arcas (pop 5) went for $53. Someone will respond that folks are buying kits not as collectables but to build.... This may be true at this point in time but comments are welcomed.

[Martins4xf]

Hey Gerry,

I'm sorta new to rocket collecting and I have been using your database as reference for purchases on ebay. I may have been involved in a couple of the auctions you just mentioned. I was surprived to get an ARIES SST and SEA DART at reasonably low prices compared to other past auctions. On the other hand I wanted the AIM Sidewinder and may have helped drive that price up a bit. I would like to build these kits, but its more likely that I will clone them.

I am looking to clone a few oldie but goodies and the BLUE BIRD ZERO is one that comes to mind. Can you explain why this rocket demands such high prices? It seems to be a straight forward kit.

Sorry I don't have any K kits to help out with your registry. If I bump into anyone around here that does, I will let them know about the project.

[gerryfortin]

Hey Gerry,


I am looking to clone a few oldie but goodies and the BLUE BIRD ZERO is one that comes to mind. Can you explain why this rocket demands such high prices? It seems to be a straight forward kit.



Hi Martin,

If you check eBay, I believe there is a partially opened BLUE BIRD listed.

I can't respond to your question about the BLUE BIRD's popularity or associated folk lore but the database indicates few appear on Ebay and the demand is always strong. Maybe Jimid or Mojo1986 can provide some background. I have a fully built example from the Mike Kalmar collection that is simply beautiful and would never consider to fly it.

BTW, Inflight Rocketry has a BLUE BIRD clone kit if I am not mistaken. You may want to check their website.

[mojo1986]

Hi Martin,

I can't respond to your question about the BLUE BIRD's popularity or associated folk lore but the database indicates few appear on Ebay and the demand is always strong. Maybe Jimid or Mojo1986 can provide some background. I have a fully built example from the Mike Kalmar collection that is simply beautiful and would never consider to fly it.

This kit was produced from 1980 to 1985. Generally speaking 6 years would be long enough to make it a reasonably common kit. A few possible explanations come readily to mind which may account for its relative scarcity................

1) People didn't like it,

2) Those who DID like it built it when they got it, and

3) It may never have been offered as a free kit (many free kits show up years later, probably because they were thrown in a box when received................after all, if it's not something that really lit your fire and you didn't actually order it, you would likely put it well down in the build pile). Then, you noticed girls, and the rest is history...................

Joe

[Martins4xf]

Hey again Gerry,

Thanks for the heads up on the BLUE BIRD ZERO and info.

I have been looking around to find a Saturn V and Saturn 1B kit to build.
I was wondering how to compare an open kit to your database.
Do you recall why there was a 30th anniversary Saturn V that went for $724?
The average price is only $165.

Should I maybe look at the Semroc kits instead of the vintage Estes?
From looking around I figure I would want to upgrade the engines on either Estes kit.

I did have a little gem I found the other day, a sealed battle star galactic Viper for $15.51 plus $6 shipping. And the seller included a surprise SDI satellite at no cost.

I am gonna build a TLP Nike Ajax next and see how that cluster works out. Anyone else build one yet? Any advice?

[gerryfortin]

Hey again Gerry,

Thanks for the heads up on the BLUE BIRD ZERO and info.

I have been looking around to find a Saturn V and Saturn 1B kit to build.
I was wondering how to compare an open kit to your database.
Do you recall why there was a 30th anniversary Saturn V that went for $724?
The average price is only $165.

Should I maybe look at the Semroc kits instead of the vintage Estes?
From looking around I figure I would want to upgrade the engines on either Estes kit.




For the Saturn V and Saturn 1B, I consider a kit to be acceptable for inclusion in the database as long as not started. These kits come in boxes and are rarely found still shrink wrapped. So the database price range should be the target price for buying an OOP kit.

The $724 Saturn V kit was an anomaly; somone lost their common sense in the bidding process. You can find Estes Saturn V kits on eBay for between $135-160 with little patience.

[Martins4xf]

Did you happen to see the Astron X-ray K-18 no hang tag for $432. WOW!

Ah shoot, I just missed out on a Mercury Atlas and an Honest John Maxi-Brute.

I do love the database. I find it has helped me two ways...

1.) I don't over spend, know the fair market value over the last two years keeps my bidding in check

2.) At other times I am more comfortable going higher than I might have otherwise. Again because I know the fair market value over the last rwo years

Like several other mentioned, I love the kit descriptions and photos.

keep up the good work! :)

[gerryfortin]

Well folks, I'm flying back to the States today (Feb10 China time) and hope the weather in Chicago and Portland, Maine cooperates.

I plan to have the Estes kit database updated by end of day Feb11. The market for rarer Estes kits in excellent condition is alive and well. I've noticed multiple collectors bidding at levels near or above the database range for these original mint kits. Indeed an early X-Ray K kit without hangtag that looked gem condition was bid to $432. Given its rarity, I fundamentally believe that $432 will be considered inexpensive in a few years as new collectors appear for early rocketry items. I also detect signs of a quiet kit collecting community building on eBay.

Another auction is worth noting in this post. Yesterday a Starship Vega that looked to be in mint condition with unbroken balsa sheet and problem free hangtag closed at $87. This is well above the $55 highest price realized in the past two years. What was interesting is that four bidders were active on the kit including myself. I needed a mint example for the collection and it appears that others were also seeking an example. Unfortunately, the bidding closed while I was asleep and the high price realized surprised me.

That is it for now....need to start packing.

[gerryfortin]

Had typical case of jetlag and was up at 3:00am. This allowed a quiet house and time to complete the lastest Estes database update. We have reached the two year anniversary with 5462 kits listed in the database; how time move on so quickly!

The Top 15 Expensive Kit list is now a $250 or better club. The fact that a K21 Gemini Titan (Green Skill Level) kit sold for $290 against the prior recorded sale of $282 strongly suggests that collectors are using the pricing database for bidding decisions. Let's hope this continues and a credible market is developed for vintage Estes kits.

On the most active front, the Oracle (#2187) jumped into the Top 15 Most Active list due to several sellers dumping kits at a substantial discount to the listed retail price of $139.99. With patience you can buy one of these for $45-50 including shipping.

I've noticed that a few new Estes kits are hitting the market with the Satellite Interceptor (#3027) making its debute on eBay.

Also I've noted that the Cross Reference Table was never completed. I will do my best to get the table finished.

That's about it for this update. Definitely need to spend some time in the basement to start preparing for the spring launch season.

Comments and feedback allows welcomed!

[jadebox]

I see that the "Young Astronauts" Cadet (1459) we recently sold on eBay is now listed.

Thanks once again for maintaining the list. It was helpful to me as a buyer and as a seller. I used it to help decide if the price offered to us to buy a large lot of old rocket kits was reasonable, and it helped me decided what to sell and what to use as a starting bid.

-- Roger

[traveler]

....

Do you recall why there was a 30th anniversary Saturn V that went for $724?
The average price is only $165.

....


WoW!!! :eek:

Is there a link to this? Or is it too old? I couldn't find it.




:cool:

[gerryfortin]

WoW!!! :eek:

Is there a link to this? Or is it too old? I couldn't find it.

:cool:

I believe the eBay lot sold in the May 2009 timeframe but do not save individual links. The price was definitely atypical.

[ScaleNut]

Unless thinks pick up at work soon,
I may have to put up an unopened (still plastic wrapped) Estes Maxi Pershing
it will be interesting to see what it goes for. It's not vintage but relativly hard to come by

[traveler]

I believe the eBay lot sold in the May 2009 timeframe but do not save individual links. The price was definitely atypical.

Thanks. That is definitely too old for ebay to still have a live link.




:cool:

[Martins4xf]

9***k just showed up again... got this "Very Rare ORIGINAL 1958 MMI Aerobee-Hi Model Rocket Kit" for a whopping $362!


http://cgi.ebay.com/Very-Rare-ORIGINAL-1958-MMI-Aerobee-Hi-Model-Rocket-Kit_W0QQitemZ200441954955QQcategoryZ2567QQcmdZViewItemQQ_trksidZp4340.m8QQ_trkparmsZalgo%3DMW%26its%3DC%26itu%3DUCC%26otn%3D20%26ps%3D63%26clkid%3D8108413712837458663

[gerryfortin]

Focus on the Liberty Seated Dime portion of the website and the Liberty Seated Collector Club (LSCC) is consuming most of my free time. Shortly, there will be an announcement within the LSCC ranks that I've taken a new volunteer position entitled IT and Marketing Director. The position goal is to enhance online club member experience and to establish United States regional meetings for club members....a non trivial project. So attention to model rocketry has been minimal and will continue to be in a minority position.

Collecting eBay prices realized is still happening and I am committed to maintaining the databases. The current March 15 update shows the database to contain 5750 entries, again excluding open/damaged kits and buy it now results. Screening individual kits to determined if they are opened or damage does add to the workload but I do want the database to be representative of sealed and mostly problem free ktis.

With 5750 entries, the database could be considered mature. We know what is common and what is truly rare after two years and 5750 listings. In previous posts, I've tried to provide a verbal indication of the pricing/market trend. But the description was cursory at best. So another idea arose and I've started marking individual pricing trends with Green and Red numbering. This is the comment just inserted on the Estes kit homepage;

Estes Kit Database - Pricing Trend

After two years of collecting Estes kit pricing data, the database could be considered mature and usable for pricing trend analysis and judging rarity levels of earlier kits. To that end, I will update the online database only once every 4-6 weeks but will continue to collect pricing results information in the background. Within each kit pricing table, pricing trend is now marked with Green numbers for an increasing average kit price or new high kit price while Red numbers are used for decreasing pricing in the same manner. The use of a visual pricing guide will allow readers to judge pricing trends themselves without my previous broad market intepretations.

That is it for now....back to Liberty Seated Dimes.

Also, I am saddened by the recent development on the "Ebay Alert" trend. Both individuals should try to find common ground. There is much to learn about early Estes kits and their packaging and we should have open sharing of perspectives.

[Randy]

The $724 Saturn V kit was an anomaly; somone lost their common sense in the bidding process. You can find Estes Saturn V kits on eBay for between $135-160 with little patience.


Verna has 2 of those kits mint and sealed and she says she'll sell both for $724 and pay for next day shipping.

Let me know. :chuckle:

Randy
www.vernarockets.com

[mojo1986]

Also, I am saddened by the recent development on the "Ebay Alert" trend. Both individuals should try to find common ground. There is much to learn about early Estes kits and their packaging and we should have open sharing of perspectives.

Gosh, I'm beginning to wonder whether Lurker 01 left the forum because of my comments regarding stapled kits. Gerry, is that what you think? His last post didn't seem to be aimed at me in particular (at least, I didn't take it that way). I expressed skepticism regarding his conclusion that Estes stapled their earliest kits, and, I think, with good reason. I certainly didn't mean to offend Bob in any way, and I really hope my post didn't trigger his abrupt exit from YORF.

Joe

[gerryfortin]

Gosh, I'm beginning to wonder whether Lurker 01 left the forum because of my comments regarding stapled kits. Gerry, is that what you think? His last post didn't seem to be aimed at me in particular (at least, I didn't take it that way). I expressed skepticism regarding his conclusion that Estes stapled their earliest kits, and, I think, with good reason. I certainly didn't mean to offend Bob in any way, and I really hope my post didn't trigger his abrupt exit from YORF.

Joe

Joe, that is how I read his post and therefore the comment about finding common ground.

[Initiator001]

I have an Estes Space Plane that was auctioned at one of the NARAMs in Texas back in the early 80s.

It was donated by Vern Estes himself (He found it in his garage).

The bag IS stapled.

'Other' Bob

[mojo1986]

I have an Estes Space Plane that was auctioned at one of the NARAMs in Texas back in the early 80s.

It was donated by Vern Estes himself (He found it in his garage).

The bag IS stapled.

'Other' Bob

Bob, thanks for posting this. It adds to the body of evidence that suggests that Lurker01 was correct in his assertion that the earliest Estes kits were stapled.

I guess I could say I'm getting convinced.

My original skepticism on this point, elaborated in a response to Lurker01's post, was certainly not intended to offend him in any way. I have posted an apology to Bob in the original 'Ebay Alert' thread.

Joe

[SEL]

Joe, that is how I read his post and therefore the comment about finding common ground.

Sorry Jerry, but common ground has nothing to do with it. Joe simply stated an opinion that disagreed w/Lurkers', and Lurker left in a huff, which he is prone to do whenever anyone disagrees with him over anything. This is a discussion forum for discussing model rocketry and that's all that was going on here. I didn't see anything in Joe's comments that should have caused Lurker to react the way he did, and yes, it's too bad. Lurker has a lot of collectables and information he could share here, but instead he chooses to accuse people of "bragging about their 'k' kits" in one sentence, while in the next sentence saying essentially 'my stuff is better than your stuff'. It gets more than a little annoying after a while.
Just my opinion.

S.

[georgegassaway]

A copule of weeks ago, I mentoend i'd be auctioning some kits to pay bills and such.
for those who may not look thru the "For Sale" forum, here's a link to my Announcement:

http://forums.rocketshoppe.com/showthread.php?p=89757

The following kits plus a Pilgrim Plastic model.

http://homepage.mac.com/georgegassaway/GRP/ebay/FEB7-2010/GeorgeAuctions-2.jpg

- George Gassaway

[gerryfortin]

Sorry Jerry, but common ground has nothing to do with it. Joe simply stated an opinion that disagreed w/Lurkers', and Lurker left in a huff, which he is prone to do whenever anyone disagrees with him over anything. This is a discussion forum for discussing model rocketry and that's all that was going on here. I didn't see anything in Joe's comments that should have caused Lurker to react the way he did, and yes, it's too bad. Lurker has a lot of collectables and information he could share here, but instead he chooses to accuse people of "bragging about their 'k' kits" in one sentence, while in the next sentence saying essentially 'my stuff is better than your stuff'. It gets more than a little annoying after a while.
Just my opinion.

S.

I think Joe's last post is consistent with my point about common ground....

To be honest, I find message boards annoying when individuals express feelings in cyperspace that they probably would not say face to face. If Lurker was correct on the point of staples kits, then Joe took the appropriate step to apologize and recognize this as a learning event. Now we need Lurker to apologize for the tone of his email and all is back to "normal".....you are probably wondering if I am really serious as most of you don't know me personally. :D

[traveler]

Are Estes technical reports collectable items?

9***k just did his last second bid thing and took a copy of TR-11 which I though I had won. :mad:




:cool:

[SEL]

I think Joe's last post is consistent with my point about common ground....

To be honest, I find message boards annoying when individuals express feelings in cyperspace that they probably would not say face to face. If Lurker was correct on the point of staples kits, then Joe took the appropriate step to apologize and recognize this as a learning event. Now we need Lurker to apologize for the tone of his email and all is back to "normal".....you are probably wondering if I am really serious as most of you don't know me personally. :D

I have no doubt that you are serious, and I applaud you for it. And and I applaud Joe for his apology to Lurker. I have nothing personal against Lurker: I don't know him, have never met him. I'm sure if he and I could sit down over a beer, we'd find "common ground". It's simply his repeated behavior and comments here that promoted him to my 'ignore' list. And that's all I have to say about that:) Lets get back to rockets.

S.

[gerryfortin]

Just a quick note to inform you that the Estes kit database easily passed through the 6000 kit milestone last week and now stands at 6040. The recorded eBay sale value of these kits including shipping now stands at $301,000; not an insignificant amount of money. Please remember that no buy it now sales are included in the database.

Are there any important points to report? Well a few.

The Oracle video camera rocket is quickly moving up the Top 20 popular kit list and stand at 72 sales. Prices have recovered slightly and the Oracle typically brings around $60 now including shipping.

The AIM9 Sidewinder (#2125) continue to sell well with pricing increase to $50 per kit during last 20 sales.

As many of you may have seen yesterday, #1343 Orion Starfighter/Torellian Invader kit in nice condition brought a reasonable $160 given its meager 3 appearance on eBay since Feb 2008.

There are few early K kits on eBay. One will see the Skill Level facecard and hangtag version of some earlier kits, but the true K kits (1963-1972) are really difficult to locate for serious collectors.

Finally, I am considering selling my K kits to raise cash for other purposes. When the decision is made, the sales route will be a fixed price list on the Estes kit database page. I will adapt the Liberty Seated Dime for sale webpage to Estes kits. Why sell? To be honest, I though there would be more visible collector response to the database and open registry effort but that has not materialize. If that is the case, then trying to encourage an Estes kit collector community may not be worth the effort and it is time to move on....

Thanks for reading this post.....yes, I am in China and unfortunately will miss the April 24 CMASS launch at Amesbury.

[raohara]

To be honest, I though there would be more visible collector response to the database and open registry effort but that has not materialize.
What kind of response were you hoping for?

Regards,

Rich

[gerryfortin]

What kind of response were you hoping for?

Regards,

Rich

Hi Rich, I was hoping that other collectors with reasonable early K kit collections would step forward and participate in the open registry that I set up on Estes kit website. The link is here; http://www.seateddimevarieties.com/BAR/kkits/kkit_index.htm.

Feedback on organized kit collecting would also have been useful but none materialized though there have been many views of the K Kit index link and my open registry collection. So folks took a peek at the concept.

Maybe the concept was not explained well enough? Or maybe rocket kit collectors do not wish to disclose their collections other than posting pictures on this forum (Jimid for example). Please remember that I come from the coin collecting world where the hobby is quite sophisticated with grading services and registries to display one's set online. I tried to use a simple approach by building an online open registry for Estes K kits and having the requirements being broad to include no hangtag, yellow Pre Damon, Countdown and Post Damon yellow hang tag packaged kits; but not a single response or point of feedback.

Therefore I have to assume that trying to stimulate organized kit collecting is not a meaningful project.

It's my belief that early mint K kits are indeed rare and under appreciated and under valued as a collectable. That perspective is from the supply side of equation, the demand side is a different or unknown situation. Maybe Mojo was correct in a prior post that once the old timers who enjoyed model rocketry in the 1960s lose capacity, then few people will appear to appreciate and buy the old K kits.

[gerryfortin]

Just a brief update.

Estes database is approaching 6200 entries. Few K kits have appeared on eBay except for small group that closed today. I won the K-6 Ranger with pre Damon yellow hang tag for $141 which I believe to be cheap. It is the first example seen other than JimiD's example when posting his collection on the forum. Also I could not pass up the K-2 Mark with blue facecard and Free Kit hang tag. This is also a first for me and the database will be updated to include this kit variation. $46 also seemed quite reasonable.


K-6 Ranger
http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=250618554020&ssPageName=STRK:MEWNX:IT

The K-3 Space Plane (pre Damon hang tag) and K-55 Goblin with Countdown hang tag both sold consistent with database pricing.

[Gus]

Gerry,

Congratulations on the wins. Those are two great items.

[gerryfortin]

Thought I would share a few eBay K Kit statistics.

- Basis is 6240 unopened kits sold via normal eBay auction and tracked since Feb 2008 (about 2.5 years)
- Statistics include all K kits (K-1 through K-59) except Saturn V and Mars Lander
- Separated the early no hang tag, and yellow, countdown and damon yellow hang tag era kits from the colored skill level kits into two groups

The results......

Early K kits population of 245 or 3.9% of all unopened kits on eBay

Skill level kit population was close at 241, again 3.9% of unopened kits.

These stats may lead you to believe that early K kits are available with patient searching but remember that the stats are for 57 different kits.

To compare, the Gooneys have appeared 22 times in same timeframe. That is 0.4% of the eBay listings which means you will wait for a long time to put together a complete set of Gooneys.

eBay also contains a huge amount of Buy It Now listings and other "stuff". Typically 10-20% of listing are real auctions.

If I divide the 6420 kits in the database by 120 weeks (approx. time I've been tracking), then an average of 54 unopened Estes kits are sold via normal auction per week. Multiply that number by 4% and we arrive at 2 early K kits and 2 skill level kits per week.

The reality is early K kits are typically listed in groups when someone liquidates a holding. There are times when weeks go by and no early K kits are listed.

In case you might want to know........

[gerryfortin]

The May 22, 2010 Estes database update is completed and online. The database now totals 6440 entries. The green and red colors for highlighting pricing trends were softened a bit to help differentiate from the normal black font.

Several new kit varieties were added including the K-28 Thor Agena-B with brown facecard and $3.75 printed pricing. I've also included the two different type rainbow hang tags first discovery on the USS Atlantis kit. The different hang tag styles are listed as Large Letters and Small Letters on Rainbow Hang Tag.

While flying back from Shanghai, I thought about ways to raise kit collecting awareness. An idea struck. It would be cool to build separate pages off of the rocketry home page that only showed the pictures of kits for certain types of sets. For example, imagine having a page that would illustrate all of the skill level kits by colors. Or imagine a page that would illustrate all of the different kit varieties for the venerable Falcon; there must be at least 10 to 12 different versions when counting hang tags with/without printed pricing, free kits stickers etc. These types of pages would be informative and educational for lurkers and might inspired a few more collectors. These types of projects would require that folks like Gus, Mojo, JimiD and Gerry poll their collections to secure all possible kit varieties and bring the images into one location.

[gerryfortin]

Its been an incredibly busy month with travels to China and Colorado before returning home July 2. Throughout the trips, I've managed to stay on top of eBay kit sales and record activity.

The database is presently 27 months old with 6828 entries. How time passes quickly. Prices for older kits seem to have stabilized after dropping in late 2009/early 2010. I'm seeing certain K kits and Skill Level Kits selling a strong monies if the kits are in good condition. A Citation Bomarc just brought $230 during the past week and the kit was in top condition per the images.

As with previous updates, I've flagged pricing changes with either green (increasing) or red (decreasing) colors. If you see just black that means the kit's price has not changed since the last update or there was no activity.

I've cut back dramatically on Estes kit collecting and once again focused on Liberty Seated dimes, my core interest. Sadly, I've not had the time to even attend a CMASS launch this year and will also miss the July Amesbury launch, once again due to business travel.

Happy 4th to everyone.......

[gerryfortin]

Back in China and have spare weekend time to catch up on eBay sale. The Estes kit database achieved the 7000 kit milestone. Total sale value of the 7000 kits including shipping is $340,000 give or take a few cents.

Recent sale prices have been stronger than in recent memory. The most recent batch of kits from "rocket grandpa" did very well.

I will post a databased revision online around end of July.

Take care all......

[gerryfortin]

Indeed Estes kit prices are firming up but the recent prices for "johnnyrebandme" are simply spectacular...

#1279 Nike Ajax - $315
#1270 Nike-X - $142
#1322 Delta Star - $127
#1335 Blue Bird Zero - $83

So do we have new buyers/collectors entering the market?

It does appear to be a good time to be selling older kits.

[gerryfortin]

What in the world is going on with this kit? The last eBay sale was $81. Here is the pricing trend for the last 9 lots.

$28, $39, $31, $28, $22, $23, then $62, $69, $81

Any comments?

[gerryfortin]

I've made another round trip to China and finally settling in at home before traveling to Boston tomorrow for the annual American Numismatic Association convention. Jetlag had me up early this morning, so the opportunity for an Estes kit database update presented itself.

The database is current through August 10 with 7264 entries. July and early August saw almost 440 orginal kits being sold on eBay. As I was tabulating the results, it become obvious that pricing were moving upward even though the number of kits being listed were substantial. To check my impression of upward pricing movement, I did a quick tabulation of the number of kits that saw a pricing change in the last five weeks. Then I counted those moving up and down to gain a sense of market direction. Here is what I learned;

Total kits with pricing change: 109
Upward Movement: 63
Downward Movement: 46

Nearly half of the kits showing decreasing prices are the more recent kits that are actively being sold by Bellevue and other merchants. The upward/downward pricing ratio for the early kits (0650-1299) is quite positive at 24/13 as these are the true collector kits.

Well that is about it for now. Unless it rains on Saturday, I WILL ATTEND the CMASS Acton launch. Yippee....

[gonzoexe]

Excellent resource for info. on kits, Thanks Gerry.

I'd like to see if there are some other Estes collectors out there, maybe swap info and photos on what kits collected and wanted.

Dave
(Gonzoexe - eBay)

[gerryfortin]

Dave,

I agree with the thought of locating other Estes kit collectors and building a more "formal" community.

I've taken on the role of IT/Marketing Director for the Liberty Seated Collectors Club and we are quite active with annual and regional US meetings. Building a strong community to exchange kit information and to trade kits rather than always having to go thru eBay may be wise for launching collector club.

Maybe an official Estes kit collector club with bylaws and an annual meeting might not be a crazy idea?

If my observations are correct, the Estes kit database is finally having the effect of establishing market pricing for the rarer kits. I'm recording eBay sales that are within or exceeding the price target/range of the database. Recently, the demand for skill level and earlier kits is definitely increasing and the buyers appear to be serious kit collectors rather than a nostalgic newbie with cash.

Gerry

[gerryfortin]

Happy Labor Day weekend!

I'm heading to China on Tuesday and thought best to get new update online before leaving.

Database reached 7500 entries and is a nice round number.

AIM Sidewinder moved into the TOP 15 active kits table. A Mini Birdie (TK44) realized $389 this week and enters the TOP 15 most expensive kits table.

There is positive pricing pressure during last month as a nice selection of choice skill level kits and scarce 13xx series kits were placed on eBay. Prices realized were strong with many new high prices being set in the database. One seller used the Buy It Now option with aggressive opening prices with only 30% of kits selling. I have no explanation for the strong market in August other than the earlier kits being offered are in choice condition.

Thank you to those of you who offered or have sent me images for the individual kit pages. I must find time in my busy schedule to add more individual kit page links and content.

Next update will be around third week of October.

[gonzoexe]

I would have liked a second Tk-44 Birdie, but that's an outrages price...
I have 2 Birdies, but one was partially built and taken a part.

It's hard to deal with the fluctuation of pricing, but it does make for some interetsing monitoring and seeing what kits sale high one week and low the next week.
Kinda like the stock market???

Dave - Gonzoexe

[gerryfortin]

It's hard to deal with the fluctuation of pricing, but it does make for some interetsing monitoring and seeing what kits sale high one week and low the next week.
Kinda like the stock market???

Dave - Gonzoexe

Indeed the variation in kit pricing is interesting to watch. But one must remember that preservation quality is also a parameter in the pricing equation. Some older eBay kits have hangtag problems, cloudy plastic bag or yellowed instructions. These kits typically bring weaker prices while the kits that are in near perfect condition bring strong prices. Unfortunately, the database cannot capture the influence of kit preservation on pricing results.

Of course, supply/demand is always a variable.

[mojo1986]

Indeed the variation in kit pricing is interesting to watch. But one must remember that preservation quality is also a parameter in the pricing equation. Some older eBay kits have hangtag problems, cloudy plastic bag or yellowed instructions. These kits typically bring weaker prices while the kits that are in near perfect condition bring strong prices. Unfortunately, the database cannot capture the influence of kit preservation on pricing results.

Of course, supply/demand is always a variable.

Gerry, that's one of the reasons I added the 'COMMENTS' section to the original database.

Joe

[ghrocketman]

As great as Gerry's website and database is, I'd really like to know how many USS Andromeda's Estes sold from 1875 to 1982 ! :D

[gerryfortin]

As great as Gerry's website and database is, I'd really like to know how many USS Andromeda's Estes sold from 1875 to 1982 ! :D

:chuckle:

This error comes with the territory. I live in the 19th century for the Liberty Seated Dime research and collection and those 18xx seem to slip in during the 20th century.....

[gerryfortin]

Fellow Rocketeers.......

It has been an incredibly busy summer and fall this year. One of the time casualties was CMASS launch attendance where I only found time to attend one launch this year. What a pity.....

The Estes kit database finally received an overdue update with 8025 entries online. The previous update was at the 7500 entry point so the October 25 update is a good indication of kit sales activity and pricing changes. Here is the commentary from the website homepage....

" The ratio of Estes kits with upward and downward pricing changes appears to be in rough balance. I see this fact as the market being stable after a few months of strong demand for earlier kits. The Gooneybird series saw a number of sales during the past 6-7 weeks and pricies were also in balance with some kits reaching new highs (Cloud Hooper and Sky Shriek) while a Zoom Broom went cheap at $34.

I was the buyer of the Farside-X No Hang Tag kit recently sold by Mojo1986. "

As always, comments and feedback are welcomed. I wish to have more time for providing additional individual kit pages. Maybe around Christmas time will the schedule slow down enough to devote 2-3 days to that effort.

Gerry

[Scott6060842]

I have been drooling over some of those EXPENSIVE Mojo kits, LOL. :)

I did manage to pick up a Goony missiletoe, a mini-Bomarc, and an astron drifter (opened) to build and a shrink wrapped aerospace club viper to collect. Also picked up a '70s R2D2 for the boy for Xmas.

The data bases help assure I don't overpay. Keep up the good work!

[gerryfortin]

Happy Holidays to everyone!

My apology for being quiet and missing in action for the past several months. It is difficult to balance overseas employment, numismatic pursuits and model rocketry at the same time. As a result, model rocketry took the hit but I still managed to track eBay kit sales during free time. The result is nearly 500 kit sales were recorded in November and December and added to the website pricing database this morning.

During the past two months, overall eBay kit market weakness was the trend. It was a buyer's market and I hope that forum members jumped in and bought a the low end of the pricing range. The exception to the soft market is pre skill level kits dating before 1972. These kits continue to show stength and pricing increases. Kits from 1964-1971 appear to be attractive to the serious collectors who are willing to spend hundreds of $ for a rare Estes kit.

Of note is the lower trading range for Saturn V 2157 kits. Prices have settled into a $80-90 range while previously, one could expect to pay well over $125 and up to $150. If you desire a nice 2157 to build, then this is the time to buy.

On a personal note, I did manage to win a gem Arcas K-26 in stapled gusset bag a few weeks back. The seller described the kit as missing a hang tag, but the images were accurate and showed an early ARCAS with stapled bag. I could not believe the winning price of $66. When I opened the shipment box on December 22, Santa brought an early Xmas present. The seller included the original and well preserved Estes cardboard shipping box from the mid 1960s. What a treat!

I've also purchased Excaliber and Dragon 7 kits in the past month. The prices seem to be too cheap and I will just build a hoard of these kits until the market recovers.

[gerryfortin]

By the way, the market value of the 8500+ kits sold on eBay since February 2008 is $461,000. In another two months, the database will be three years old; quite hard to believe I've recorded kits prices for that long.

One obvious point from the February 2011 milestone is the rarity of early K kits. The database clearly illustrates the small amount of sealed kits to hit the market in three years. I was aware of at least one hoard coming on the market in 2009/2010 that drove up the counts on four early kits.

[Bill]

By the way, the market value of the 8500+ kits sold on eBay since February 2008 is $461,000.


...for a surprising average of almost $55 each. Just tell the significant other that rocket kits are a better investment than gold...you can "prove" it.


Bill

[gerryfortin]

Just a quick note to forum readers that I am still tracking Estes kit prices though no updates during the last 45 days. The database is approaching 9000 kits and I will generate an update once returning to US next week.

Feb 23 update. Completed reviewing eBay listings in my Watch folder. I have never seen such a poor sales rates as in the past few days. Less than 50% of eBay listings are receiving any bids. Of course, these are recent kits. The early K kits are acting in the exact opposite manner with all kits being sold at or above the prices listed in my Estes pricing database.

[gerryfortin]

The February 2011 update marks three years of tracking Estes kit listings and prices realized on eBay. Over this three year period, I believe the database has been transformed into a "pricing guide" and has well characterized the rarity of collectable Estes kits.

Following are the comments posted on my website concerning the 3 Year Anniversary update......

This database update clearly illustrates a divergence in the Estes kit market. Prices for early K kits are strong and increasing during occasional eBay offerings. Kits issued between 1975 and 1980 exhibit fairly stable pricing. However kits issued after 1980 are suffering pricing reductions with the most acute situation being the post 1990s kits. There are exceptions with the Pro Series Patriot and Maxi Force enjoying strong pricing gains in the last 3 months. I've also noticed a lower "sell through rate" on the post 1990s kits with many eBay listing going unsold at pricing levels consistent with this pricing guide.

My conclusion is that the "collector market" is alive and well while the "build market" is flooded with clone kits and new manufacturers therefore impacting Estes kit prices.

Should I continue to maintain this effort? Any comments from those who do use the database?

[chanstevens]

Should I continue to maintain this effort? Any comments from those who do use the database?

I for one appreciate having such a decent reference out there. It's not like there's much other data out there.

[5x7]

I for one appreciate having such a decent reference out there. It's not like there's much other data out there.

Thank you Gerry!

[El Cheapo]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=280650741023

Looks like there is some Shill bidding going on here. All his auctions are being bid by the same people. That stinks.

[nvrocketeer]

Thank you Gerry!

Seconded, loudly. I bought an Estes Phantom on eBay earlier this year, and your pricing guide was of enormous comfort to me, letting me know where "reasonable" was.

[mojo1986]

http://cgi.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item=280650741023

Looks like there is some Shill bidding going on here. All his auctions are being bid by the same people. That stinks.

I have to agree that it looks very suspicious, especially since l***9(0) has no feedback whatsoever. Still, it's possible the guy is just a newbie who has gotten very excited.

[Bill]

I have to agree that it looks very suspicious, especially since l***9(0) has no feedback whatsoever. Still, it's possible the guy is just a newbie who has gotten very excited.


On this one item, he looks like a newby, nibbling at the original bidder until he ties, then placing one more bid to get ahead. A shill will probably leave it tied if he accidently did that, knowing he maxed out the original bidder.

Besides, this item has a reserve, and it serves no purpose to try to goose the price up until after the reserve is met.

But then again, maybe he is in reality very smart, knowing that his high bid is below the reserve and does not count, so he is trying to make us all think he is inexperienced.


Bill

[Gus]

On this one item, he looks like a newby, nibbling at the original bidder until he ties, then placing one more bid to get ahead.
This "nibbling" phenomenon is why experienced bidders use sniping software.

[El Cheapo]

I guess to the uninformed, even with a reserve, it helps drive up a fictitious value and urgency. $112.00 for a Colossus??? C'mon. That's ridiculous.

[Ltvscout]

I guess to the uninformed, even with a reserve, it helps drive up a fictitious value and urgency. $112.00 for a Colossus??? C'mon. That's ridiculous.
Clone one with Maxi-Alpha III parts now.

[El Cheapo]

Or better yet, without the plastic parts.

[nvrocketeer]

This "nibbling" phenomenon is why experienced bidders use sniping software.

Real men do their own sniping. :cool:

[Ltvscout]

Real men do their own sniping. :cool:
Or still use the original sniping website from the late 90's, www.esnipe.com.

[El Cheapo]

the priceless Colossus is back that I posted earlier. The last auction got pushed to $142.00 Reserve not met. Oddly enough, some of the same bidders on this one...lol What a jerk.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ESTES-COLOSSUS-MAXI-BRUTE-MODEL-ROCKET-KIT-1326-/280656539930?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item41586ef11a

[mojo1986]

the priceless Colossus is back that I posted earlier. The last auction got pushed to $142.00 Reserve not met. Oddly enough, some of the same bidders on this one...lol What a jerk.

http://cgi.ebay.com/ESTES-COLOSSUS-MAXI-BRUTE-MODEL-ROCKET-KIT-1326-/280656539930?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item41586ef11a

It's hard to find fault with the guy for putting a somewhat higher-than-expected value on a perceived rarity. The Estes Colossus kit is quite scarce. I am the original creator of the Excel file which was incorporated into Gerry Fortin's list. After about 2008 I was less diligent in recording rocketry sales, so I can't say for sure just how scarce the kit is..................but there is only a single entry in the list, in 2005, when a kit went for $77.06.

There is little doubt that the 1326 Colossus is rarer than the other Maxi Brute kits such as the Pershing, Honest John and V-2. These latter three kits consistently go in the $100+ range.

Joe

[El Cheapo]

My point in previous posts is that three or four of the same ebayers were bidding on all his auctions a week or so ago. Looks like he was trying to drive up his own auction. I looked at his seller history and the same thin ocurred on all his fairly current rocket auctions. Interestingly enough, not one of those bidders won any of the auction but were always second highest bidder. Its an easy dishonest trick if you have more than one account or a buddy do it for you. Drive the price up creating a buzz. If by chance nobody outbids the fake or "shil" bid, you send out an email with a second chance offer or relist and do it again. Kinda looks like whats goin on here.

[ghrocketman]

Nuttin wrong with shills...seems like a completely legitimate way to artificially raise a sales price.
Just don't fall into the trap of buying something for more than it is worth.
If one pays more than what something is worth, it is the BUYER that is STOOPYD, not the seller.

[mojo1986]

My point in previous posts is that three or four of the same ebayers were bidding on all his auctions a week or so ago. Looks like he was trying to drive up his own auction. I looked at his seller history and the same thin ocurred on all his fairly current rocket auctions. Interestingly enough, not one of those bidders won any of the auction but were always second highest bidder. Its an easy dishonest trick if you have more than one account or a buddy do it for you. Drive the price up creating a buzz. If by chance nobody outbids the fake or "shil" bid, you send out an email with a second chance offer or relist and do it again. Kinda looks like whats goin on here.

OK, I reread your earlier post..............I didn't realise that you were still referring to shill bidding.

Joe

[jharding58]

Today there is a second round release of the Mercury Redstone - Liberty Bell for $125.00.

http://cgi.ebay.com/NEW-SEALED-ESTES-MERCURY-REDSTONE-MODEL-ROCKET-KIT-2167-/290569261131?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43a747104b#ht_500wt_1156

[jharding58]

My point in previous posts is that three or four of the same ebayers were bidding on all his auctions a week or so ago. Looks like he was trying to drive up his own auction. I looked at his seller history and the same thin ocurred on all his fairly current rocket auctions. Interestingly enough, not one of those bidders won any of the auction but were always second highest bidder. Its an easy dishonest trick if you have more than one account or a buddy do it for you. Drive the price up creating a buzz. If by chance nobody outbids the fake or "shil" bid, you send out an email with a second chance offer or relist and do it again. Kinda looks like whats goin on here.

Shill bidding is supposedly directly against ebay policy and will not be tolerated - thus sayeth ebay. Of course, ebay is also a buyers paradise and sellers pay through the nose for the privilege.

[Bill]

Shill bidding is supposedly directly against ebay policy and will not be tolerated - thus sayeth ebay. Of course, ebay is also a buyers paradise and sellers pay through the nose for the privilege.


And who would be enforcing that? Shill bidding ups the final price, meaning more money paid in fees; would a policy which results in lower fee revenue be actively enforced? Buyers cannot even detect shilling with the bidder names hidden so they cannot help to uncover a shill.


Bill

[Kimble29]

Today there is a second round release of the Mercury Redstone - Liberty Bell for $125.00.

http://cgi.ebay.com/NEW-SEALED-ESTES-MERCURY-REDSTONE-MODEL-ROCKET-KIT-2167-/290569261131?pt=LH_DefaultDomain_0&hash=item43a747104b#ht_500wt_1156


I've got this same kit at home. Still sealed. I was planning on building it this winter. I've had it for years. I think I got it back in '00 or '01 when I bought an old Sky Raider kit off ebay. Sky Raider was one of the first rockets I built when I first got into the hobby and I found one on ebay and bought it. I saw that this kit was also for sale so I bought it too. Only paid about $25.00 or so for it as I recall. I can't believe it's going for over $100... I see there's a V2 kit for sale too. Looks like it's over $100 too. Crazy. Wish I had the coin to go after it. I had one of those as a kid too. Great rocket.

[jharding58]

I've got this same kit at home. Still sealed. I was planning on building it this winter. I've had it for years. I think I got it back in '00 or '01 when I bought an old Sky Raider kit off ebay. Sky Raider was one of the first rockets I built when I first got into the hobby and I found one on ebay and bought it. I saw that this kit was also for sale so I bought it too. Only paid about $25.00 or so for it as I recall. I can't believe it's going for over $100... I see there's a V2 kit for sale too. Looks like it's over $100 too. Crazy. Wish I had the coin to go after it. I had one of those as a kid too. Great rocket.

But wait! There is another doin' the rounds and it is only $94.00 at the moment!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/130582526060?ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1426.l2649

[CJU]

But wait! There is another doin' the rounds and it is only $94.00 at the moment!

http://www.ebay.com/itm/130582526060?ssPageName=STRK:MEBIDX:IT&_trksid=p3984.m1426.l2649

Those prices have inspired me to locate and pull out my spare MR-Liberty Bell for eBay... :D
I think I bought two of them for $10 and only built 1.

Chris

[sandman]

Gees! I horded 11 of them years ago planing a kit using the Mercury Redstone as the basis (Mercury Little Joe/Jupiter C) but then Estes discontinued it.

Maybe it's time to sell!

[jharding58]

It has to be a "remember when" collector. Every other piece of that model absent the capsule kit can be replicated from contemporary parts.

[kurtschachner]

Every other piece of that model absent the capsule kit can be replicated from contemporary parts.

I know, that's kind of a problem though. Granted the old mold was a bit sloppy and you had to force some of the pieces into alignment, but still it was a cool capsule. Hopefully the molds still exist and we'll see it again.

[mojo1986]

What is the body tube diameter of this kit?

[jharding58]

I recall an ST-20

[jharding58]

Gees! I horded 11 of them years ago planing a kit using the Mercury Redstone as the basis (Mercury Little Joe/Jupiter C) but then Estes discontinued it.

Maybe it's time to sell!

It's way past time to sell baby, sell. I'll buy two.

[dannymrmissile]

Ken,

This is Gerry Fortin. Thanks for checking the Estes kit database. Please be aware that I do not include any Buy It Now information as those listings are not true auctions and are an inadequate measure of kit value through open bidding. As for the stated higher price that is not listed in the database, can you please specific the date of the auction so I can add to the database? Many thanks.

To all other readers....it is a pleasure to be part of this community. This is my second BAR event and hopefully I will stay with model rocketry for years to come.

A short personal introduction is probably in order. My primary interest for 20+ years has been rare American Liberty Seated dimes minted from 1837-1891. After years of researching the series, I published a web-book at www.seateddimevarieties.com. From the numismatic experience, I decided to try a new collecting pursuit and Estes kits seem to be an obvious choice. Since there was a lack of public pricing guide, I though it might be interesting to assemble one and attempt to determine the relative scarcity of individual kits. After 1 year of tablulating eBay prices on a best effort basis, I decide to offer the information to the public via my website. It is possible that I missed some kit listings across one year's time. I also will dismiss any kits that are opened or obviously damaged from the database. As a 44 yr. collector, theres no way to put a price on most vintage kits. Generally they go for between 40-150.oo, its up to whos lookin and the economy, etc. More specific kits top 300.oo . This is something you just have to have a "feel" for. The same kit can vary in price by 50.oo or more depending on what Ive said. Believe me, Ive had em all. I sold a K Scrambler for 850.00 back in late 90s-doubt it'd bring that now. Last week a Centuri 1/100 L joe II went for 315. So if you made a pricelist, it would be obsolete by the time it went to print. Hope this helps. dannymrmissile.

[jadebox]

As a 44 yr. collector, theres no way to put a price on most vintage kits. Generally they go for between 40-150.oo, its up to whos lookin and the economy, etc. More specific kits top 300.oo . This is something you just have to have a "feel" for. The same kit can vary in price by 50.oo or more depending on what Ive said. Believe me, Ive had em all. I sold a K Scrambler for 850.00 back in late 90s-doubt it'd bring that now. Last week a Centuri 1/100 L joe II went for 315. So if you made a pricelist, it would be obsolete by the time it went to print. Hope this helps. dannymrmissile.

Gerry tracks the high, low, and mean prices the items fetch on eBay. It may not be perfect, but it's helpful. In a way, too, it helps set the prices. For example, there's a hobby shop on eBay selling a large collection of vintage kits at set prices ("Buy It Now"). It's obvious that they are using Gerry's list to set the prices.

I've used the price list for things like deciding whether or not to sell a kit, and, less often, to help me decide how much I might bid on a kit. So, I've found it useful and appreciate the effort that goes into maintaining it.

-- Roger

[dannymrmissile]

Those prices have inspired me to locate and pull out my spare MR-Liberty Bell for eBay... :D
I think I bought two of them for $10 and only built 1.

Chris
Just joined the forum. Saw this post of yours-I have 2 of these kits too. The desire to build one is bubbling in my soul!, thankfully I have an original Centuri Merc. Red. I built years ago. Anyhow, your desire to sell it is understandable because of price-but I learned long ago, unless you really need the money-once you sell the kit, its gone. Then when you spend the money ITS gone. Unless the cash was urgent or you end up with another great kit-then in the end-your kit AND cash are gone! Food for thought , (or my two cents worth)!, dannymrmissile.

[dannymrmissile]

Gerry tracks the high, low, and mean prices the items fetch on eBay. It may not be perfect, but it's helpful. In a way, too, it helps set the prices. For example, there's a hobby shop on eBay selling a large collection of vintage kits at set prices ("Buy It Now"). It's obvious that they are using Gerry's list to set the prices.

I've used the price list for things like deciding whether or not to sell a kit, and, less often, to help me decide how much I might bid on a kit. So, I've found it useful and appreciate the effort that goes into maintaining it.

-- Roger
Agreed. Sent you a long letter off my outbox but dont think it made it to here(im new to yorf) As I said in letter- Hats off to Gerry for keeping us up to date with old kits, etc. He's doing a great job. Im dealing w/hobby shop you mentioned for kits I want. Its good to have a "standard" to use-especially for newcomers. Ive just been doing it for SO long. What he's doing must be very time & a true labor of love. Thanks Gerry! dannymrmissile ps.- it actually helps me too!

[jharding58]

I must confess that I am always curious about the concept of "collecting" models. I suppose that in some cases there is a liberal dose of "uniqueness" in the subject, but let's face it - all of us have at some point in the past possessed one or more of those articles which in this genre are deemed priceless. They were either launched, lost, or given away becasue there was no perceived immediate value. I cannot remember how many of the original Quercetti Tor models that I lost to trees, cars, or simply wondering if they would remain on fire as I launched one. In England in the '60s they were everywhere. I bought every single rocket that MPC produced. I can vivdly recall buying the Cox Little Joe II from the toy aisle in a Woolworth's in Hazelwood Missouri in 1970, and probably left it in a box in 1971

Most people that I know who collect things that many deem to be "toys" are doing so through a sense of retrospective. Either it was something that you had and lost and really would like to have again, or it is a sense of transcending memory with an artifact. That is possibly the reason that there is some outlandish value assigned to articles that in a contemporary sense were hang tag items. I will concede that there is a sense of importance ascribed ot the age of the item, or to a historical attachment to a person - the Harry Stine designs from Quest rereleased a year or two ago seem to be good examples, but there seems to be an extended sense of collectible and rare.

I "collect" many things, probably too many things. I have boxes and boxes of plastic kits, rockets, flying models, model boats - the issue now is if I were to slip under a bus tomorrow what would the value be? There is a difficult enough time convincing my insurance agent that the bubbling pile of plastic goo and embers really was worth upward of the tens of thousands, just as my spouse (and possibly yours) would consider the piles of 20x20x24 boxes as nothing more than filling space. I still have the first model that I considered to be a "collectible item"; an Airfix DO-17 in the original white logo box acquired for $4.50. It was purcashed in 1981, so it has been sitting in some non-descript aforementioned box for 30 years. I could not put my hands on it without opening several cartons, and I could not tell you why it would fetch the price of $25.00 or more if I could find the right buyer. About ten years ago I attempted to embark upon a catalogue of these items. Evolve a spreadsheet with article, description, acquisition date, price paid, carton location - all the information that would ensure I could find that specific item with a minimum of fuss. That did not get as far as I expected since the backlog was already too large and continues to grow.

Collectibles are the ultimate evidence of value versus price. For someone that is either completely committed to acquisition due to the need to reconnect with their past, or if there is a case of simply "winning", then the rarified $150.00 for a third release model of a Mercury Redstone is understandable. I suppose that is why I find the proliferation of collectible sites on the web purporting to establish a value a little silly. At least Gerry provides a historical perspective and record of the madness.

[Bill]

Most people that I know who collect things that many deem to be "toys" are doing so through a sense of retrospective. Either it was something that you had and lost and really would like to have again, or it is a sense of transcending memory with an artifact.


...or it is something you always wanted but either could not find or afford...


Bill

[Ltvscout]

Here's Danny's reply to Roger that he accidentally emailed to me:

Hi! Thanx for the response. I couldnt agree with you more-its good Gerry's
making a reference like he's doing. I commend his work for that,
and it is helpful. I know of the hobby store in question, as Im
dealing with them now on items I want! Guess it all boils down to
if ya have tha money. Thats why I like to meet people and trade. It
mutually helps us both obtain things we want that we cant afford,
especially if theres more than 1 item we want-it really adds up !
My desire to buy/sell/trade kits is a labor of love, so I do it for
fun and not so much for the monetary value-though I
appreciate/respect that aspect of it too. All in all, I enjoy all
aspects of the hobby and appreciate everyones effort in their
labors to inform, advise and contribute their parts to keep us all
informed & up to date on whats going on. Were one big family
sharing the same thing-ROCKETRY! Hats off Gerry! dannymrmissile.

[dannymrmissile]

I must confess that I am always curious about the concept of "collecting" models. I suppose that in some cases there is a liberal dose of "uniqueness" in the subject, but let's face it - all of us have at some point in the past possessed one or more of those articles which in this genre are deemed priceless. They were either launched, lost, or given away becasue there was no perceived immediate value. I cannot remember how many of the original Quercetti Tor models that I lost to trees, cars, or simply wondering if they would remain on fire as I launched one. In England in the '60s they were everywhere. I bought every single rocket that MPC produced. I can vivdly recall buying the Cox Little Joe II from the toy aisle in a Woolworth's in Hazelwood Missouri in 1970, and probably left it in a box in 1971

Most people that I know who collect things that many deem to be "toys" are doing so through a sense of retrospective. Either it was something that you had and lost and really would like to have again, or it is a sense of transcending memory with an artifact. That is possibly the reason that there is some outlandish value assigned to articles that in a contemporary sense were hang tag items. I will concede that there is a sense of importance ascribed ot the age of the item, or to a historical attachment to a person - the Harry Stine designs from Quest rereleased a year or two ago seem to be good examples, but there seems to be an extended sense of collectible and rare.

I "collect" many things, probably too many things. I have boxes and boxes of plastic kits, rockets, flying models, model boats - the issue now is if I were to slip under a bus tomorrow what would the value be? There is a difficult enough time convincing my insurance agent that the bubbling pile of plastic goo and embers really was worth upward of the tens of thousands, just as my spouse (and possibly yours) would consider the piles of 20x20x24 boxes as nothing more than filling space. I still have the first model that I considered to be a "collectible item"; an Airfix DO-17 in the original white logo box acquired for $4.50. It was purcashed in 1981, so it has been sitting in some non-descript aforementioned box for 30 years. I could not put my hands on it without opening several cartons, and I could not tell you why it would fetch the price of $25.00 or more if I could find the right buyer. About ten years ago I attempted to embark upon a catalogue of these items. Evolve a spreadsheet with article, description, acquisition date, price paid, carton location - all the information that would ensure I could find that specific item with a minimum of fuss. That did not get as far as I expected since the backlog was already too large and continues to grow.

Collectibles are the ultimate evidence of value versus price. For someone that is either completely committed to acquisition due to the need to reconnect with their past, or if there is a case of simply "winning", then the rarified $150.00 for a third release model of a Mercury Redstone is understandable. I suppose that is why I find the proliferation of collectible sites on the web purporting to establish a value a little silly. At least Gerry provides a historical perspective and record of the madness.
I was a collector of 44 years-had several thousand kits & was the hub for kit info B 4 the internet. 99 % of everyone I dealt with was looking for the one they had as a kid..... dannymrmissile ps I have a cox little joe II mint in box-nice kit!

[jharding58]

They're doing it again! An Estes MR Gus Grisson release that is already at $102.50 with a day left; I mean, I took it up to $79.99 to see where it lived, and the next bid was $100 - but this will undoubtedly go for $150 again.

[bernomatic]

Personally, everytime I hear talk about the speculators saving kits, I hear Kansas playing.
"Dust in the wind. All we are is dust in the wind."

I'm not saying it isn't nice to have those kits available, especially if certain aspects (instructions, decal copies) aren't available on a clone page. What gets me are the speculators who buy a kit hoping to make money on it. I'm buying a kit to build and fly it and save money. If I can build an older design cheaper by ordering the parts, that's how I'll do it.

First, I don't have to worry about the parts in the kit being old and damaged. Second, I almost always end up with leftover tube that I can use for something else. Third, I can make updates to systems or build straight "vintage period".

I doubt anyone would be able to tell which came from a kit and which from parts if I built them both. So why pay the extra money? So everyone can oh and ah over a faceplate? I'd rather clone two or three rockets from my past with the same money it could cost me to buy one oop kit.

If it were something like a vintage WW2 Corsair, I could see buying it since there would be no way for me to create it from scratch. But come on, someone selling a vintage 1970 Mosquito unopened? Half the value is gone as soon as you open the bag, and if you paid more than $3.00 for it, you paid more than the individual parts would have cost you.

One more thing and I'm through with my rant.

Over the years I have supplemented my income doing many various jobs. I spent time helping a second hand store owner go to homes and clear them out. This gentleman would buy an estate so that the deceased person's family didn't have to bother with an estate sale or auction. His job was to clear out the house in so many days so that the house could be sold and the inheritors could more quickly get their inheritance. Often times we would clear out the house of any decent furniture, then go back in to check for anything with a good quick resale price. Items (tools,obvious collectables, antiques, etc.) were taken for their obvious value and the ability of the item to be quickly resold. Everything else was tossed into a dumpster or taken to the curb for pickup.

Just food for thought.

[jharding58]

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=250911325656

[Gus]

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=250911325656

That's just nuts. What I can't believe is that there were two bidders besides the winner who thought the kit was worth more than $200. Usually these outlandish prices are the result of two fairly newbies duking it out. Wow.

[jharding58]

I grow ever closer to opening boxes. Question is will the seller ever see that amount.

[ghrocketman]

Absolutely moronic.
I would not give a dime over $40 for the last release of the plastic capsule Mercury Redstone.
There are literally THOUSANDS of those out there.
Somebody needs their head RE-examined as they obviously got a Brain-SCAM the last time...
Buyer deserves a first class TARD-CARD award for that purchase.

[dannymrmissile]

Absolutely moronic.
I would not give a dime over $40 for the last relese of the plastic capsule Mercury Redstone.
There are literally THOUSANDS of those out there.
Somebody needs their head RE-examined as they obviously got a Brain-SCAM the last time...
Buyer deserves a first class TARD-CARD award for that purchase.


A M E N ! Yore quote saved me lots of time. dannymrmissile.

[sandman]

A M E N ! Yore quote saved me lots of time. dannymrmissile.

I'll sell anyone who wants one a Mercury Redstone kit for $120 and I'll include shipping!

Just to avoid Ebay fees.

Hey, free shipping is a deal!

I just checked and I do have 10 left although I may save one. :rolleyes:

[jharding58]

"I'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a Mercury today"

[bernomatic]

I'll lay ya even money that rocket never gets built.

It'll just sit in someone's closet and be trotted out every now and then to show some naive person the $300 rocket that was bought and is probably worth five hundred dollars now.

Besides all that, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that a***1 was the seller pushing the price up . He had too much time into this just to loose it by $5 and not checking in at the last few minutes of the bidding. just seemsstrange to me.

Morons is too kind a word.

[dannymrmissile]

I'll sell anyone who wants one a Mercury Redstone kit for $120 and I'll include shipping!

Just to avoid Ebay fees.

Hey, free shipping is a deal!

I just checked and I do have 10 left although I may save one. :rolleyes:

I'll sell anyone who wants one a Mercury redstone kit for $ 2000 and Ill charge triple for shipping ! ha he ho hu hi heee ! dannymrmissile.

[dannymrmissile]

"I'd gladly pay you Tuesday for a Mercury today"


OK WIMPY, Sign, POPEYE. dannymrmissile.

[dannymrmissile]

I'll lay ya even money that rocket never gets built.

It'll just sit in someone's closet and be trotted out every now and then to show some naive person the $300 rocket that was bought and is probably worth five hundred dollars now.

Besides all that, I wouldn't be surprised to find out that a***1 was the seller pushing the price up . He had too much time into this just to loose it by $5 and not checking in at the last few minutes of the bidding. just seemsstrange to me.

Morons is too kind a word.


Aint itt a pittty ! Maybe he had too much 2 drink . I'll sell ya 1 for .35 cents-wait a minit-whattarwee sellin here, mabee i should ask . 40, ? ? dannymrmissile.

[jeffyjeep]

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=250911325656
DANG! That almost prompts me to sell my last one! Almost.

[dannymrmissile]

DANG! That almost prompts me to sell my last one! Almost.
N O T ! dannymrmissile.

[Molniya]

Just returned from CVS with a fresh pair of reading glasses just to be sure I read this properly:

Centuri Black Wiidow: $ 426.21

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=170713455035

Man, someome REALLY must have wanted that rocket !

My first car - 1968 VW Karmann Ghia convertable ( well sort of..it had a duct tape roof ! ) was only 400 bucks...a pointless analogy, but i'm just say'n !

Apologies if you have seen this already ...

[bernomatic]

Did the price of balsa just soar somewhere?

I don't understand these bidders. It all doesn't make any f'g sense to me. I'm looking at the bid history and it just doesn't make any sense.

6) Member Id: s***e( 467) US $426.21 Oct-23-11 12:40:24 PDT
5) Member Id: l***e( 182) US $421.21 Oct-23-11 12:40:24 PDT
4) l***e( 182 ) US $177.50 Oct-23-11 12:40:24 PDT
3) Member Id: b***a( 241) US $175.00 Oct-23-11 12:40:19 PDT
2) b***a( 241 ) US $67.00 Oct-23-11 12:40:19 PDT
1) Member Id: ****y( 1201) US $66.00 Oct-23-11 12:18:00 PDT

At line 2 your autobid bids $67, at line 3 you bump your bid to $175?
At line 4 autobid bids $177.59, at line 5 bumps own bid to $421.21. :eek:

WTF, could someone please explain why you bump your own bid by $250? :confused:

[bernomatic]

Just returned from CVS with a fresh pair of reading glasses just to be sure I read this properly:

Centuri Black Wiidow: $ 426.21

http://offer.ebay.com/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewBids&_trksid=p4340.l2565&rt=nc&item=170713455035

Man, someome REALLY must have wanted that rocket !

My first car - 1968 VW Karmann Ghia convertable ( well sort of..it had a duct tape roof ! ) was only 400 bucks...a pointless analogy, but i'm just say'n !

Apologies if you have seen this already ...

At least I hope you didn't offer the guy like $200, then say,

"No wait, make that $400"

[Neal Miller]

At least I hope you didn't offer the guy like $200, then say,

"No wait, make that $400"

Hey , if any of you guy's with more money than Brains, that got an extra Million or two. I have a 1970 Centuri 1/45 scale Little Joe II in a plain field box with a label on one end and the original $12.95 price tag ( was bought in 1971 ). Cereal Offers only, Please send Account number as to proof of funds. get Cereal

[dannymrmissile]

At least I hope you didn't offer the guy like $200, then say,

"No wait, make that $400"


Are you KIDDING ME ? ? ? Nope, just looked. God, to think I used to have at least 10 Cent. kits in that exact same type pakg.-above all, among them were Arcon, IRIS, Defender. TomaHawk, H John, V 2, . Oh well, least I still got tha photos ! dannymrmissile. ps-I once got a '56 Ford PU for 100.oo-only needed a clutch(which I put in ) WHEW.

[dannymrmissile]

Hey , if any of you guy's with more money than Brains, that got an extra Million or two. I have a 1970 Centuri 1/45 scale Little Joe II in a plain field box with a label on one end and the original $12.95 price tag ( was bought in 1971 ). Cereal Offers only, Please send Account number as to proof of funds. get Cereal

Ha! Sorry , dont have tha cereal box, but if Ur SERIOUS, I'll give you 3 to 1 in value for a trade ! ( IM SERIOUS). dannymrmissile. ps-U can keep tha box-ha.

[Neal Miller]

Ha! Sorry , dont have tha cereal box, but if Ur SERIOUS, I'll give you 3 to 1 in value for a trade ! ( IM SERIOUS). dannymrmissile. ps-U can keep tha box-ha.

Sorry Danny, I have let to many go that I wish I had back, and as I cant clone the Little Joe,
she will sit on the shelf in my office along with a few other things that I have not got the ambition up to build yet.

[Gus]

Did the price of balsa just soar somewhere?

I don't understand these bidders. It all doesn't make any f'g sense to me. I'm looking at the bid history and it just doesn't make any sense.

WTF, could someone please explain why you bump your own bid by $250? :confused:
In order to understand what happened you have to look at the times.

Those aren't people raising their own bids. It's eBay's proxy bid system at work. If you re-order all the bids in terms of the time they were placed it is very logical.

If the bid price for an item starts at $20 and I really want the item I might put in a bid for $100. eBay then makes me the high bidder at $20. If someone else comes along and is willing to bid a maximum of $30, I will then be listed as the high bidder at $30.50.

In the auction for the Black Widow, bidder l***t bid a max of $57 the day the auction started and then numerous bidders underbid him until ***y bid $66 about 22 minutes before the auction ended. Then bidder b***a made two bids under $66 and he bid $175 in the last 20 seconds of the auction. He was the winning bidder for 6 seconds until j***e and s***e both put in last second bids (which is a very smart thing to do). j***e's maximum bid was $421.21 and s***e's was an unknown amount higher. So the proxy system resets the high bid to the next increment above the second highest bidder's bid which (at this dollar amount of the bidding) was a $5 increment, and the auction closes at $426.21. s***e may actually have bid $500 or $1000, we'll never know. But if you resort the bids into their chronological order it all makes sense.

On another note, I wasn't at all surprised to see this kit go for more than $400. The Black Widow was in Centuri's first catalog (1962) and the packaging on the kit for sale was the original (short-lived) Centuri packaging that preceeded the more familiar orange and white packaging. This was a really rare kit that looked to be in pristine condition. You see a kit come up on eBay in that packaging maybe once a year or so.

What doesn't make sense is someone spending $300 for an Estes Mercury Redstone. Those are on eBay every week and routinely go for $70 - $120. Usually, ridiculously high closing prices (on common items) are from two bidders new to eBay who don't know how to look at completed auctions to see what stuff normally goes for. But one of the bidders in the $300 Redstone auction had 392 feedbacks so it is really surprising.

Anyway, I hope this explanation of the Black Widow bidding makes more sense to you now.

Steve

[jharding58]

He got paid for it.

Whether or not the payment holds or some masive buyer's remorse kicks in I do not know. But soulcatchermusic received a positive feedback from the seller for quick payment. A special note is that there are now four MR on ebay; two 1921 and two 2167.

[bernomatic]

Yes, thank you Steve. I see how it works, but don't think I'll ever understand it. :chuckle:

[Cohetero-negro]

In order to understand what happened you have to look at the times.

Those aren't people raising their own bids. It's eBay's proxy bid system at work. If you re-order all the bids in terms of the time they were placed it is very logical.

If the bid price for an item starts at $20 and I really want the item I might put in a bid for $100. eBay then makes me the high bidder at $20. If someone else comes along and is willing to bid a maximum of $30, I will then be listed as the high bidder at $30.50.

In the auction for the Black Widow, bidder l***t bid a max of $57 the day the auction started and then numerous bidders underbid him until ***y bid $66 about 22 minutes before the auction ended. Then bidder b***a made two bids under $66 and he bid $175 in the last 20 seconds of the auction. He was the winning bidder for 6 seconds until j***e and s***e both put in last second bids (which is a very smart thing to do). j***e's maximum bid was $421.21 and s***e's was an unknown amount higher. So the proxy system resets the high bid to the next increment above the second highest bidder's bid which (at this dollar amount of the bidding) was a $5 increment, and the auction closes at $426.21. s***e may actually have bid $500 or $1000, we'll never know. But if you resort the bids into their chronological order it all makes sense.

On another note, I wasn't at all surprised to see this kit go for more than $400. The Black Widow was in Centuri's first catalog (1962) and the packaging on the kit for sale was the original (short-lived) Centuri packaging that preceeded the more familiar orange and white packaging. This was a really rare kit that looked to be in pristine condition. You see a kit come up on eBay in that packaging maybe once a year or so.

What doesn't make sense is someone spending $300 for an Estes Mercury Redstone. Those are on eBay every week and routinely go for $70 - $120. Usually, ridiculously high closing prices (on common items) are from two bidders new to eBay who don't know how to look at completed auctions to see what stuff normally goes for. But one of the bidders in the $300 Redstone auction had 392 feedbacks so it is really surprising.

Anyway, I hope this explanation of the Black Widow bidding makes more sense to you now.

Steve

Steve,

Not only that, but the rockets are different:

http://www.ninfinger.org/rockets/catalogs/centuri62/62cen10.jpg

and

http://www.ninfinger.org/rockets/catalogs/centuri71d/71dcen36.jpg

Now the real issue is whether or not the kit came with cat urine infused!? :)

J

[A Fish Named Wallyum]

I'll sell anyone who wants one a Mercury redstone kit for $ 2000 and Ill charge triple for shipping ! ha he ho hu hi heee ! dannymrmissile.
Anyone who wants to pay me $2k for a Mercury Redstone will not only get free shipping, I'll drive it to them personally. In a tutu. :rolleyes:
Okay, tutu optional. :D

[Neal Miller]

The Black Widow kit in the Flea-bay auction looked to be the second version, with the new booster design with the swept fins. I don't remember a lot about the packaging back in the late 60's but I think my Javelin, ( bought in late 1966) came in a plastic bag.
I had a Payloder II and my brother had a large scale jaguar , these kits came in a box.
The packaging of this Black Widow, with the colorful header tag was, I would guess from the early 70's ?
I was buying more Estes kits back in the 70's, and only remember the smaller Centuri kits coming in the plastic bags with the roll pattern cards.

[Doug Sams]

The Black Widow kit in the Flea-bay auction looked to be the second version, with the new booster design with the swept fins. I never realized that. The newer one (left) certainly looks sleeker.

Both catalog pages claim the boosters will glide (rather than tumble). Despite the lesser sweep of the older one's booster fins, with its fins far aft, I guess that keeps it stable thus allowing it to glide. Doug .

http://www.doug79.com/stuff/black-widow-old-vs-new.gif

.

[Cohetero-negro]

The Black Widow kit in the Flea-bay auction looked to be the second version, with the new booster design with the swept fins. I don't remember a lot about the packaging back in the late 60's but I think my Javelin, ( bought in late 1966) came in a plastic bag.
I had a Payloder II and my brother had a large scale jaguar , these kits came in a box.
The packaging of this Black Widow, with the colorful header tag was, I would guess from the early 70's ?
I was buying more Estes kits back in the 70's, and only remember the smaller Centuri kits coming in the plastic bags with the roll pattern cards.


Neil,

Look at the second photo in the auction listing... it shows the instructions and the diagram of the second stage with the fin pattern of the first release of the Black Widow; less swept fins.

The first version of the kit also appears to be using 'gap staging'? Can anyone confirm this?

Lee Piester patented the 'Pass Port Staging' technique. I asked him about it while talking to him in one of his two remaining Hobby Bench stores. The holes in the coupler are designed to bleed off pressure thus allowing the stages to remain in contact a little bit longer and ensure successful staging. Very simple yet high impact idea in my opinion.

The packaging is the early to mid 60's Centuri packaging. I know that on Centuri's first year kits, the stapled header card was similar in that the graphic would match the model contained within, but the instructions were simply a page or two of typed instructions with no diagrams at all.

IIRC, the checker board packaging started showing up on newly manufactured kits around 1967/68. There was old inventory that was still using the old packaging being sold in the early 70's because I remember mail ordering close out models in the mid 70's with the old Centuri graphic. Believe it or not, some of the models that go for $100+ today, actually took YEARS to finally sell out with the price of around $2 - $4 dollars back then.

Most of you remember the sells fliers: spend $10 and get a free Javelin or something similar. Its too bad Bill Simon, former VP of Estes industries threw out all of the Estes production run records about 6 months before finding this forum; he thought they were of no value :( Production runs on models are in the 1000's and sometimes even more. Centuri started out in Lee and Betty's garage in 1961. Not sure how many first version Black Widows were made during it's life span; maybe just a few thousand with 80% being built and flown to destruction... this is just a guess.

As a kid I would mail order kits, have them sit around and finally either build them or use the parts within for some other rocket ... if anyone here ever builds a time machine, please contact me back then and tell me to NEVER build a single kit because there is an entity known as ebay coming in the late 1990's that will reward me for my purchases!

I don't know if Centuri ever did the following as Estes did:

I have a few examples of Estes K-Kits being repackaged into Skill-Level kits. Even though the Estes 12** catalog number is on the Skill-Level card, the instructions clearly have the K-** number and early parts within. Same with some late Vashon manufactured kits that were just opened, replaced with Estes logo paperwork, and a nice Estes/Damon sticker used to cover up the Vashon logo.

Could there be a 1st version Black Widow inside a later Centuri checker board package? Expect that kit to fetch over $600 should it become available on e-pay!


Jonathan

[Cohetero-negro]

I never realized that. The newer one (left) certainly looks sleeker.

Both catalog pages claim the boosters will glide (rather than tumble). Despite the lesser sweep of the older one's booster fins, with its fins far aft, I guess that keeps it stable thus allowing it to glide. Doug .

http://www.doug79.com/stuff/black-widow-old-vs-new.gif

.


Doug,

I have built the second version Black Widow and the booster actually glides great! If anyone wants to know, the booster has one larger fin, with the other two smaller and at a large angle greater than 120 degrees; when viewed from the rear the fins form what looks to be a 'flattened' Y with the larger fin being the stem of the Y.

Estes had a similar designed called the Shark that did the same thing as the Widow; someone here check me on the Shark name please. I don't think the Shark ever became kit was just one of those old Estes plan of the month designs; the Black Widow appeared to come first. And I also remember another lesser know manufacture releasing a gliding booster kit, but Memory Alpha isn't working too well this AM ... sinucitus on the brain :(

May have been a Bomar model or some other small scale manufacture.

Jonathan

Addendum

The design is named, Tiger Shark, plan #22. I can scan the plans and post here if anyone wants them?

[Cohetero-negro]

Thread,

Sorry to drag this out but something else just came to mind:

One way of dating collectibles from the 'Baby Boomer' generation is the address on packaging.

Prior to 1963, not everyone used a zip code. Many old collectibles don't have them because prior to 1960 Zippy didn't exist.

You can google for the history of the zipcode if you like.

Look at the first picture of the Widow ... no zip code, so chances are this is a 62/63 version rather than a later 60's version. I also believe but have no proof that the 62 - 69 version was probably the first or second production runs that finally sold out in 69 and was redesigned to work better with 'Pass Port Staging'. If the first version was gap staged, I would think people shied away from that and instead went for designs where the motors were buttressed up against either other allowing better reliability in staging? Just my opinion :)

Jonathan

[Cohetero-negro]

Thread,

Jezzus ... why can't I just post in one message :(

One last thing comes to mind and then I am walking away from the computer:

In the late 1950's there was a missile being tested out at White Sands that looked very similar to the early Black Widow, but had 4 fins on each stage.

I can't remember nor have I ever known the name of that missile.

Does anyone here know and share that name?

Thank you

Jonathan

[Doug Sams]

Lee Piester patented the 'Pass Port Staging' technique. I asked him about it while talking to him in one of his two remaining Hobby Bench stores. The holes in the coupler are designed to bleed off pressure thus allowing the stages to remain in contact a little bit longer and ensure successful staging. Very simple yet high impact idea in my opinion. I've never implemented gap staging the way Centuri did it. One, I deplore those external couplers. They're way too aesthetically klunky. Two, I've never understood why the vent only opens after the pressure causes the booster to begin sliding aft. Seems to me that sorta defeats the purpose of the vent. Yet that's exactly how the ones I've studied do it - by the time the vent opens to reduce the pressure, the booster section is already moving away from the sustainer. That's always struck me as being counter-productive.

Doug

.

[Gus]

... why can't I just post in one message :(

Jonathan
Jonathan,

Not to worry, lots of good info in those posts (and it was actually ALL about model rockets ;) ).

I agree, the Black Widow kit being sold was from the early 1960's. Really rare, and in great condition. Can't imagine there are too many out there like that one.

The eBay listing will go away soon so I've uploaded the pics of the kit here so later readers can see what we are talking about.

[Cohetero-negro]

Jonathan,

Not to worry, lots of good info in those posts (and it was actually ALL about model rockets ;) ).

I agree, the Black Widow kit being sold was from the early 1960's. Really rare, and in great condition. Can't imagine there are too many out there like that one.

The eBay listing will go away soon so I've uploaded the pics of the kit here so later readers can see what we are talking about.


Gus,

I've grown tired of debating politics. Really! I can't save America... only myself.

OK I did some looking and found this about the BW, yes it is gap staged and the name of the other commercially available gap staged bird; the RDC Vega:

http://www.rocketryforum.com/showpost.php?p=46303&postcount=7

Here is a pdf link that features the Vega about halfway down in the document:

http://www.oldrocketplans.com/pubs/RDC/news-a-log/rdc_mr_news-a-log_summer_69.pdf

I have never gap staged, but I might try it to see what the frequency of luck one can expect?

Jonathan